{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-29-atletico-mineiro-cruzeiro",
 "competition": "Brasileirão Série A",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-29T22:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Atlético Mineiro",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/7632.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Cruzeiro",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/2022.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 0,
  "away": 1
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T00:46:55Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "expected_points": 0.696,
  "score_probability": 0.0878,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3333,
   "draw": 0.2637,
   "away": 0.403
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.324,
   "away": 1.478
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1247
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.531,
   "btts": 0.5725,
   "home_scores": 0.7339,
   "away_scores": 0.7719,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2691
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.696,
    "probability": 0.0878
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.692,
    "probability": 0.0838
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.652,
    "probability": 0.1247
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.637,
    "probability": 0.0286
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.613,
    "probability": 0.0047
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0666,
    0.0838,
    0.0663,
    0.0327,
    0.0121,
    0.0036
   ],
   [
    0.0744,
    0.1247,
    0.0878,
    0.0432,
    0.016,
    0.0047
   ],
   [
    0.0532,
    0.0786,
    0.0581,
    0.0286,
    0.0106,
    0.0031
   ],
   [
    0.0235,
    0.0347,
    0.0256,
    0.0126,
    0.0047,
    0.0014
   ],
   [
    0.0078,
    0.0115,
    0.0085,
    0.0042,
    0.0015,
    0.0005
   ],
   [
    0.0021,
    0.003,
    0.0022,
    0.0011,
    0.0004,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.403,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3333,
   "draw": 0.2637,
   "away": 0.403
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T21:42:30Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Atlético rotasyon ve sakatlıklarla zayıflamış, yoğun fikstür yorgunluğu var. Cruzeiro ise tam kadro ve dinlenmiş geliyor, bu da konuk takımı için avantaj yaratabilir.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T21:42:30Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": true,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -15.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2578,
   "draw": 0.258,
   "away": 0.4842
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "rotation",
    "category_tr": "Rotasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik direktör Domínguez klasik için time misto tercih etti, ana kadro oyuncular dinlendirildi.",
    "source": "LANCE!",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 21:32"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Altı oyuncu sakatlık veya ceza nedeniyle kadroda yok, Bernard ve Maycon gibi düzenli başlangıç oyuncuları dışarıda.",
    "source": "Revista PLACAR",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 19:09"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Atlético son 18 günde 5 maç oynadı, Montevideo ve Flamengo deplasmanlarıyla yorgunluk riski yüksek.",
    "source": "ESPN Brasil",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 15:24"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Önemli bir oyuncu sakatlıkdan döndü, Cruzeiro klasik için en güçlü kadroyu sahaya sürüyor.",
    "source": "Rede 98",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 19:56"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Cruzeiro son maçından bu yana 6 gün dinlendi, rakibe göre daha taze ve hazırlıklı.",
    "source": "ge",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 22:10"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}