{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-29-vasco-da-gama-flamengo",
 "competition": "Brasileirão Série A",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-29T23:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Vasco da Gama",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3454.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Flamengo",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/819.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 1,
  "away": 4
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T01:15:51Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.916,
  "score_probability": 0.1097,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.1922,
   "draw": 0.2415,
   "away": 0.5663
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 0.952,
   "away": 1.794
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1151
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5176,
   "btts": 0.5174,
   "home_scores": 0.614,
   "away_scores": 0.8337,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.1768
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.916,
    "probability": 0.1097
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.905,
    "probability": 0.0983
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.846,
    "probability": 0.1033
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.835,
    "probability": 0.028
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.811,
    "probability": 0.004
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0697,
    0.1097,
    0.1033,
    0.0618,
    0.0277,
    0.0099
   ],
   [
    0.0556,
    0.1151,
    0.0983,
    0.0588,
    0.0264,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    0.0291,
    0.0522,
    0.0468,
    0.028,
    0.0126,
    0.0045
   ],
   [
    0.0092,
    0.0166,
    0.0149,
    0.0089,
    0.004,
    0.0014
   ],
   [
    0.0022,
    0.0039,
    0.0035,
    0.0021,
    0.0009,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0004,
    0.0008,
    0.0007,
    0.0004,
    0.0002,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.5663,
  "level": "medium_high",
  "level_tr": "orta-yüksek",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.606,
  "band": [
   0.55,
   0.6
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.1921,
   "draw": 0.2414,
   "away": 0.5665
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T22:06:51Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Vasco Gómez kaybı ve riskli oyuncularla zayıflarken, Flamengo çoklu eksiklik ve kulüp kriziyle daha çok etkilendi.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T22:06:51Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2047,
   "draw": 0.2605,
   "away": 0.5348
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Andrés Gómez ayak ağrısı nedeniyle maç dışı",
    "source": "O GLOBO",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 20:30"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Léo Jardim virüs geçirip başlayacak",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 18:11"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "weather_pitch",
    "category_tr": "Hava / saha",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Nilton Santos sentetik saha Vasco avantajı sağlar",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 13:01"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "rotation",
    "category_tr": "Rotasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Dört oyuncu riskli, kadro derinliği azalabilir",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 18:11"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Alex Sandro sakat, Ayrton Lucas başlayacak",
    "source": "ge",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 20:28"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Carrasco cezalı, orta saha seçenekleri azaldı",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 11:56"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Beş ana eksiklikle kadro ciddi zayıfladı",
    "source": "Metrópoles",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 20:46"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "club_management",
    "category_tr": "Yönetim",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Mali kriz ve CONMEBOL reddi moral düşürdü",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 21:37"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Lider Flamengo fark genişletmek için motive",
    "source": "ES Brasil",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 15:06"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}