{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-30-corinthians-mirassol",
 "competition": "Brasileirão Série A",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-30T23:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Corinthians",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/874.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Mirassol",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/9169.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 2,
  "away": 0
 },
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T08:46:25Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "expected_points": 0.889,
  "score_probability": 0.1289,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.5148,
   "draw": 0.2701,
   "away": 0.2151
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.53,
   "away": 0.898
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0,
   "probability": 0.1289
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.4376,
   "btts": 0.4704,
   "home_scores": 0.7835,
   "away_scores": 0.5926,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3704
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.889,
    "probability": 0.1289
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.853,
    "probability": 0.0927
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.782,
    "probability": 0.0212
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.778,
    "probability": 0.1032
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 4,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.763,
    "probability": 0.0024
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0943,
    0.0732,
    0.0356,
    0.0106,
    0.0024,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.1289,
    0.1273,
    0.0544,
    0.0163,
    0.0037,
    0.0007
   ],
   [
    0.1032,
    0.0927,
    0.0416,
    0.0125,
    0.0028,
    0.0005
   ],
   [
    0.0527,
    0.0473,
    0.0212,
    0.0064,
    0.0014,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0201,
    0.0181,
    0.0081,
    0.0024,
    0.0005,
    0.0001
   ],
   [
    0.0062,
    0.0055,
    0.0025,
    0.0007,
    0.0002,
    0.0
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.5148,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.515,
   "draw": 0.27,
   "away": 0.215
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T09:50:39Z",
  "source_tr": "tahmin piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Corinthians sakatlıklar, kötü form ve kudurtma baskısıyla zayıflı; Mirassol iyi form, ceza dönüşü ve motivasyonla avantajlı. Ev sahibi gol beklentisi düşer, deplasman artar.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T09:50:40Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -12.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 8.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4476,
   "draw": 0.289,
   "away": 0.2634
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Lingard, Depay ve diğer hücum oyuncuları sakat, kadro ciddi zayıfladı",
    "source": "centredevils",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 11:14"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 lig maçında 4 yenilgi 1 beraberlik, kötü form",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 12:10"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Kudurtma bölgesinde, maç kaybedilirse düşme riski %66, baskı yüksek",
    "source": "Meu Timão",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 03:01"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Seedorf istifa söylentileriyle uğraşıyor, odaklanma bozulmuş olabilir",
    "source": "ESPN Brasil",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 12:49"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fans",
    "category_tr": "Taraftar",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Organize taraftarlar kritik maç için birleşti, tribün desteği artacak",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 16:30"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "André Luis cezadan döndü, kadro derinliği arttı",
    "source": "ge",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 10:29"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 lig maçında 2 galibiyet 2 beraberlik 1 yenilgi, iyi form",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 12:10"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Corinthians deplasmanında tabu kırmak için motive, orta masa rahatlığı",
    "source": "ge",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 11:05"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}