{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-30-dundalk-shamrock-rovers",
 "competition": "League of Ireland Premier Division",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-30T19:45:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Dundalk",
  "logo": null
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Shamrock Rovers",
  "logo": null
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 3,
  "away": 1
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T08:48:42Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "expected_points": 0.789,
  "score_probability": 0.0946,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2764,
   "draw": 0.2462,
   "away": 0.4774
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.278,
   "away": 1.74
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1142
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5808,
   "btts": 0.6002,
   "home_scores": 0.7214,
   "away_scores": 0.8245,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2378
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.789,
    "probability": 0.0946
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.774,
    "probability": 0.0796
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.729,
    "probability": 0.0351
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.7,
    "probability": 0.0065
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.698,
    "probability": 0.074
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0543,
    0.0796,
    0.074,
    0.0429,
    0.0187,
    0.0065
   ],
   [
    0.0571,
    0.1142,
    0.0946,
    0.0549,
    0.0239,
    0.0083
   ],
   [
    0.0399,
    0.0695,
    0.0605,
    0.0351,
    0.0153,
    0.0053
   ],
   [
    0.017,
    0.0296,
    0.0258,
    0.0149,
    0.0065,
    0.0023
   ],
   [
    0.0054,
    0.0095,
    0.0082,
    0.0048,
    0.0021,
    0.0007
   ],
   [
    0.0014,
    0.0024,
    0.0021,
    0.0012,
    0.0005,
    0.0002
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.4774,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2764,
   "draw": 0.2462,
   "away": 0.4774
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T18:01:00Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Dundalk motivasyonlu, Rovers şampiyonluk sonrası odaklanma sorunu ve teknik kadro değişikliği yaşıyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T18:01:00Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": 5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3216,
   "draw": 0.2571,
   "away": 0.4213
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Dundalk şampiyon Rovers'ın kutlamasını bozmak için yüksek motivasyonla oynayacak.",
    "source": "Louth Live",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 13:47"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "James O'Callaghan'ın ayrılması teknik kadroda aniden değişiklik yarattı.",
    "source": "RTE.ie",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 12:53"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Şampiyonluk erken kesinleşti, kupayı kaldırma töreni odaklanmayı dağıtabilir.",
    "source": "Kfm Radio",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 17:20"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Ozhianvuna Arsenal transferi öncesi veda maçında forma giyebilir.",
    "source": "The Irish Times",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 06:05"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}