{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-30-gremio-athletico-paranaense",
 "competition": "Brasileirão Série A",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Grêmio",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/6273.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Athletico Paranaense",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3458.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 2,
  "away": 0
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T02:45:36Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "expected_points": 0.741,
  "score_probability": 0.1087,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4129,
   "draw": 0.2835,
   "away": 0.3036
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.342,
   "away": 1.114
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1346
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.4449,
   "btts": 0.5026,
   "home_scores": 0.7387,
   "away_scores": 0.6718,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3088
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.741,
    "probability": 0.1087
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.718,
    "probability": 0.086
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.702,
    "probability": 0.1346
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.659,
    "probability": 0.0922
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.653,
    "probability": 0.0214
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0922,
    0.0891,
    0.0532,
    0.0198,
    0.0055,
    0.0012
   ],
   [
    0.1087,
    0.1346,
    0.0714,
    0.0265,
    0.0074,
    0.0016
   ],
   [
    0.0772,
    0.086,
    0.0479,
    0.0178,
    0.005,
    0.0011
   ],
   [
    0.0346,
    0.0385,
    0.0214,
    0.008,
    0.0022,
    0.0005
   ],
   [
    0.0116,
    0.0129,
    0.0072,
    0.0027,
    0.0007,
    0.0002
   ],
   [
    0.0031,
    0.0035,
    0.0019,
    0.0007,
    0.0002,
    0.0
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.4129,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4129,
   "draw": 0.2836,
   "away": 0.3035
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T23:36:14Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Grêmio çoklu sakatlık ve ana oyuncu kayıplarıyla mücadele ediyor; küme düşme mücadelesi motivasyon sağlıyor. Athletico ise dönen oyuncular ve Viveros'un oynayışıyla hafif avantajlı.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T23:36:14Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -12.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 5.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3562,
   "draw": 0.2932,
   "away": 0.3506
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Sağ bek Diego Caito sakatlıkla dışarıda",
    "source": "ge",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 22:42"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.85,
    "summary_tr": "Hücum oyuncusu Cristian Pavón kaybedildi",
    "source": "GZH",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 02:47"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Ekim ayı sekiz sakatlık, bu maç için beş eksik",
    "source": "GZH",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 16:57"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "İki oyuncu sakatlıktan dönüyor",
    "source": "ge",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 21:59"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.75,
    "summary_tr": "Takım küme düşme bölgesinden çıkmaya çalışıyor",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 04:29"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Kevin Viveros oynuyor, dört oyuncu dönüyor",
    "source": "ge",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 20:35"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "rotation",
    "category_tr": "Rotasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik direktör Odair yeni kadro deneyebilir",
    "source": "Rádio Itatiaia",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 08:19"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}