{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-30-grenoble-dijon",
 "competition": "Fransa Ligue 2",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-30T19:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Grenoble",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/6994.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Dijon",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3170.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 1,
  "away": 3
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T08:46:28Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.762,
  "score_probability": 0.1058,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2894,
   "draw": 0.276,
   "away": 0.4345
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.118,
   "away": 1.426
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1315
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.4674,
   "btts": 0.5176,
   "home_scores": 0.6731,
   "away_scores": 0.7597,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2354
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.762,
    "probability": 0.1058
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.746,
    "probability": 0.0893
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.683,
    "probability": 0.1315
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.68,
    "probability": 0.0237
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.66,
    "probability": 0.0032
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0848,
    0.1058,
    0.0799,
    0.038,
    0.0135,
    0.0039
   ],
   [
    0.0816,
    0.1315,
    0.0893,
    0.0424,
    0.0151,
    0.0043
   ],
   [
    0.0491,
    0.07,
    0.0499,
    0.0237,
    0.0085,
    0.0024
   ],
   [
    0.0183,
    0.0261,
    0.0186,
    0.0088,
    0.0032,
    0.0009
   ],
   [
    0.0051,
    0.0073,
    0.0052,
    0.0025,
    0.0009,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0011,
    0.0016,
    0.0012,
    0.0006,
    0.0002,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.4345,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2808,
   "draw": 0.2906,
   "away": 0.4286
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T18:01:00Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Grenoble son 3 lig yenilgisi, teknik direktör baskısı ve taraftar gerginliğiyle forma düşüşü yaşıyor. Dijon ise Quentin Bernard'ın yokluğü ve Júlio Tavares'in dönüşüyle kadro dengesi değişiyor. Her iki takım da motivasyon ve form sorunları taşıyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T18:01:00Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2719,
   "draw": 0.2868,
   "away": 0.4412
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son 3 lig maçta 3 yenilgi, form düşüşü",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-23 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik direktör Ridira daha fazla talep ediyor",
    "source": "Le Bien Public",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 23:46"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fans",
    "category_tr": "Taraftar",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Taraftar derneği polis şikayeti reddedilmesini protesto ediyor",
    "source": "ici.fr",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 17:52"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "club_management",
    "category_tr": "Yönetim",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Kulüp yönetiminde mali komisyon krizleri yaşıyor",
    "source": "Le Dauphiné Libéré",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 10:17"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Düzenli başlangıç yapan Quentin Bernard sezonda ilk kez yok",
    "source": "Le Bien Public",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 05:03"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Júlio Tavares kadroda dönüyor, atak güçlenecek",
    "source": "Sport.fr",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 07:11"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Son 4 lig maçta 2 galibiyet 2 yenilgi, form kararsız",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-24 00:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}