{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-30-metz-pau",
 "competition": "Fransa Ligue 2",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-30T19:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Metz",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/177.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Pau",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/10678.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 1,
  "away": 3
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T08:46:29Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "expected_points": 0.83,
  "score_probability": 0.1024,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4969,
   "draw": 0.2578,
   "away": 0.2453
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.634,
   "away": 1.08
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1228
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5098,
   "btts": 0.5374,
   "home_scores": 0.8049,
   "away_scores": 0.6604,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3681
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.83,
    "probability": 0.1024
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.823,
    "probability": 0.0955
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.756,
    "probability": 0.0281
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.739,
    "probability": 0.0885
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 4,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.732,
    "probability": 0.0041
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0721,
    0.0657,
    0.0386,
    0.0139,
    0.0038,
    0.0008
   ],
   [
    0.1024,
    0.1228,
    0.0632,
    0.0227,
    0.0061,
    0.0013
   ],
   [
    0.0885,
    0.0955,
    0.0516,
    0.0186,
    0.005,
    0.0011
   ],
   [
    0.0482,
    0.052,
    0.0281,
    0.0101,
    0.0027,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.0197,
    0.0213,
    0.0115,
    0.0041,
    0.0011,
    0.0002
   ],
   [
    0.0064,
    0.0069,
    0.0038,
    0.0014,
    0.0004,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.4969,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4975,
   "draw": 0.2563,
   "away": 0.2462
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T18:01:00Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Metz sakatlık endişesi ve dengesiz formla Pau'nun 5 maçlık zafer serisi ve Pouilly kaybı karşısında; ev avantajı ve Fall formu dengeleyici.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T18:01:00Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4305,
   "draw": 0.2697,
   "away": 0.2998
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik direktör Proment kötü haber açıkladı, bir oyuncu forfait",
    "source": "Le Republicain Lorrain / Morning Foot",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 19:33"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 maçta 1 galibiyet, 2 beraberlik, 2 mağlubiyet",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "ESPN"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Evde ikinci ardışık galibiyet hedefliyor, durgunluk istemiyor",
    "source": "ici.fr",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 11:37"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Genişletilen kadroda bir oyuncu dönüş yapıyor",
    "source": "Le Republicain Lorrain",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 19:33"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "other",
    "category_tr": "Diğer",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Pape Fall 8 golle forma da, hücum gücü",
    "source": "Sport.fr",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 07:14"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Düzenli başlangıç yapan Tom Pouilly sakat/cezalı, kadroda yok",
    "source": "La République des Pyrénées",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 16:11"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Pouilly yerine Saettel oynuyor, deneyim eksikliği",
    "source": "La République des Pyrénées",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 16:11"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 maçta 5 galibiyet, 4 lig galibiyetiyle harika form",
    "source": "Recent fixtures / Sport.fr",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 07:14"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Büyük testler serisi, motivasyon yüksek",
    "source": "La République des Pyrénées / Sud Ouest",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 18:50"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}