{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-30-newport-county-chesterfield",
 "competition": "İngiltere League Two",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-30T19:45:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Newport County",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/635.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Chesterfield",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/343.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 4,
  "away": 1
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T08:46:30Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.91,
  "score_probability": 0.1085,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.1955,
   "draw": 0.2421,
   "away": 0.5625
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 0.964,
   "away": 1.79
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1154
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5195,
   "btts": 0.5208,
   "home_scores": 0.6186,
   "away_scores": 0.833,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.1792
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.91,
    "probability": 0.1085
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.9,
    "probability": 0.0983
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.839,
    "probability": 0.102
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.83,
    "probability": 0.0283
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.806,
    "probability": 0.0041
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0692,
    0.1085,
    0.102,
    0.0609,
    0.0272,
    0.0098
   ],
   [
    0.0559,
    0.1154,
    0.0983,
    0.0587,
    0.0263,
    0.0094
   ],
   [
    0.0296,
    0.053,
    0.0474,
    0.0283,
    0.0127,
    0.0045
   ],
   [
    0.0095,
    0.017,
    0.0152,
    0.0091,
    0.0041,
    0.0015
   ],
   [
    0.0023,
    0.0041,
    0.0037,
    0.0022,
    0.001,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.0004,
    0.0008,
    0.0007,
    0.0004,
    0.0002,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.5625,
  "level": "medium_high",
  "level_tr": "orta-yüksek",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.606,
  "band": [
   0.55,
   0.6
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.1881,
   "draw": 0.2525,
   "away": 0.5594
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T18:01:00Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Newport County sakatlıklar (Dibley-Dias kesin, diğerleri şüpheli) ve kötü formla maça giriyor. Chesterfield son 5-1 zaferiyle yüksek moral ve iyi formda. Ev sahibi dezavantajı hafifçe Chesterfield'e kayabilir.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T18:01:00Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 5.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.1629,
   "draw": 0.2303,
   "away": 0.6068
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Fulham kiralık oyuncusu Dibley-Dias sakatlık nedeniyle maçı kaçıracak",
    "source": "BBC",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 17:23"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Takımda birden fazla sakatlık endişesi var, kadro derinliği etkilenebilir",
    "source": "BBC",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 10:15"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 resmi maçta 1 galibiyet, 2 beraberlik, 2 mağlubiyetle form düşük",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-24 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Lee Jenkins'in 'inans büyük' açıklaması moralin yüksek olduğunu gösteriyor",
    "source": "South Wales Argus",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 08:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 lig maçta 2 galibiyet, 2 beraberlik, 1 mağlubiyet; son maçta 5-1 büyük zafer",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-24 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Asistan teknik direktör 'acımasız serisi' ifadesiyle morali övdü",
    "source": "Derbyshire Times",
    "published_at": "2026-10-24 18:47"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}