{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-altach-ried",
 "competition": "Avusturya Bundesliga",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T16:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Altach",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/4405.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Ried",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3759.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 1,
  "away": 1
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-01T09:11:25Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.724,
  "score_probability": 0.0899,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4231,
   "draw": 0.2637,
   "away": 0.3132
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.51,
   "away": 1.268
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.125
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5253,
   "btts": 0.5658,
   "home_scores": 0.7791,
   "away_scores": 0.7186,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3241
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.724,
    "probability": 0.0899
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.722,
    "probability": 0.0879
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.663,
    "probability": 0.0287
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.652,
    "probability": 0.125
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 4,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.639,
    "probability": 0.0046
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0681,
    0.0729,
    0.05,
    0.0211,
    0.0067,
    0.0017
   ],
   [
    0.0879,
    0.125,
    0.0755,
    0.0319,
    0.0101,
    0.0026
   ],
   [
    0.0709,
    0.0899,
    0.057,
    0.0241,
    0.0076,
    0.0019
   ],
   [
    0.0357,
    0.0452,
    0.0287,
    0.0121,
    0.0038,
    0.001
   ],
   [
    0.0135,
    0.0171,
    0.0108,
    0.0046,
    0.0015,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.0041,
    0.0052,
    0.0033,
    0.0014,
    0.0004,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.4231,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4229,
   "draw": 0.2637,
   "away": 0.3134
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T14:30:57Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Altach evde iyi formda ve jübile motivasyonlu; Ried kupadan çıkışın moral etkisi, yoğun fikstür ve rotasyon riski taşıyor ancak lig formu güçlü. Ev avantajı hafif önde.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T14:30:57Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": 5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4561,
   "draw": 0.2599,
   "away": 0.2841
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Evde son 2 lig maçını kazandı, formda yükselişte",
    "source": "VOL.AT",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 15:17"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "50. resmi karşılaşma jübilei ekstra motivasyon",
    "source": "Ligaportal",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 18:05"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Kupada LASK'a 3-1 öndeken maçı kaybedip elendi",
    "source": "exxpress",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 07:20"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "6 günde 3 maç (lig, kupa, lig) yorgunluk riski",
    "source": "fixture list",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 16:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "rotation",
    "category_tr": "Rotasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik direktör Despotovic çok değişiklik yapıyor",
    "source": "Sky Sport Austria",
    "published_at": "2026-10-25 13:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Ligde son 4 maçta yenilgisiz, Sturm deplasmanında puan aldı",
    "source": "Sky Sport Austria",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 14:36"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}