{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-barcelona-alaves",
 "competition": "La Liga",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T20:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Barcelona",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/83.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Alavés",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/96.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 6,
  "away": 1
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-01T09:11:26Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "high_scoring",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 0
  },
  "expected_points": 1.153,
  "score_probability": 0.0728,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.8878,
   "draw": 0.0798,
   "away": 0.0325
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 3.528,
   "away": 0.644
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 0,
   "probability": 0.113
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.7858,
   "btts": 0.4626,
   "home_scores": 0.9706,
   "away_scores": 0.4748,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.701
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 1.195,
    "probability": 0.113
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 1.177,
    "probability": 0.0961
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 1.153,
    "probability": 0.0728
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 4,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 1.146,
    "probability": 0.0642
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 4,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 1.142,
    "probability": 0.0997
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0172,
    0.0082,
    0.0032,
    0.0007,
    0.0001,
    0.0
   ],
   [
    0.0527,
    0.0368,
    0.0113,
    0.0024,
    0.0004,
    0.0001
   ],
   [
    0.0961,
    0.0619,
    0.0199,
    0.0043,
    0.0007,
    0.0001
   ],
   [
    0.113,
    0.0728,
    0.0234,
    0.005,
    0.0008,
    0.0001
   ],
   [
    0.0997,
    0.0642,
    0.0207,
    0.0044,
    0.0007,
    0.0001
   ],
   [
    0.0703,
    0.0453,
    0.0146,
    0.0031,
    0.0005,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.8878,
  "level": "top",
  "level_tr": "en yüksek",
  "banko": true,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.878,
  "band": [
   0.8,
   1.0
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.8863,
   "draw": 0.0751,
   "away": 0.0386
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T18:00:52Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Barcelona sakatlık krizi, iki ardışık yenilgi ve taraftar protestalarıyla maça giriyor. Alavés son 5 maçta galibiyetsiz ama dinlenmiş ve motivasyonlu. Ev sahibi avantajı zayıflıyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T18:00:52Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -12.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 5.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.8444,
   "draw": 0.1073,
   "away": 0.0482
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "6 oyuncu sakat, 3 genç oyuncu çağrıldı",
    "source": "ESPN Deportes",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 15:44"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son iki maçta PSG ve Real Madrid'e kaybedildi",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 16:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Son 20 günde 5 maç, 2 Şampiyonlar Ligi deplasmanı",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "ESPN"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fans",
    "category_tr": "Taraftar",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Blocus protestoları stad etrafında gerginlik yaratıyor",
    "source": "EL PAÍS",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 04:30"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "İki yenilgi sonrası takım moralı düşük",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 16:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 lig maçta 3 yenilgi 2 beraberlik, galibiyet yok",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "ESPN"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Son maçtan bu yana 8 gün tam dinlenme",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "ESPN"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Rakibin kriz anını değerlendirme fırsatı",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 16:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}