{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-bayern-munih-dortmund",
 "competition": "Bundesliga",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T17:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Bayern Münih",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/132.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Borussia Dortmund",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/124.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 2,
  "away": 2
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-01T09:11:27Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "favourite_3plus_goals",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 1.01,
  "score_probability": 0.0816,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.7297,
   "draw": 0.1529,
   "away": 0.1175
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 2.872,
   "away": 1.126
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.0852
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.7616,
   "btts": 0.6404,
   "home_scores": 0.9434,
   "away_scores": 0.6757,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.5562
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 1.01,
    "probability": 0.0852
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 1.01,
    "probability": 0.0816
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 1.004,
    "probability": 0.0757
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.975,
    "probability": 0.0498
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.971,
    "probability": 0.0459
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0213,
    0.0177,
    0.0116,
    0.0044,
    0.0012,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0498,
    0.0623,
    0.0334,
    0.0125,
    0.0035,
    0.0008
   ],
   [
    0.0757,
    0.0852,
    0.048,
    0.018,
    0.0051,
    0.0011
   ],
   [
    0.0725,
    0.0816,
    0.0459,
    0.0172,
    0.0049,
    0.0011
   ],
   [
    0.052,
    0.0586,
    0.033,
    0.0124,
    0.0035,
    0.0008
   ],
   [
    0.0299,
    0.0337,
    0.0189,
    0.0071,
    0.002,
    0.0005
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.7297,
  "level": "very_high",
  "level_tr": "çok yüksek",
  "banko": true,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.78,
  "band": [
   0.7,
   0.8
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.7286,
   "draw": 0.1558,
   "away": 0.1156
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T15:46:27Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Bayern kritik eksiklerle (Neuer, Musiala, Diaz) oynuyor; Kimmich dönüşü kısmi telafi. Dortmund Karetsas ve Chukwuemeka dönüşleriyle güçleniyor. Ev sahibi avantajı Bayern'de ama kadro kalitesi düştü.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T15:46:28Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -12.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 3.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.6669,
   "draw": 0.1807,
   "away": 0.1524
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Neuer, Diaz ve Musiala kadroda yok",
    "source": "Goal.com",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 10:02"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Kimmich band sakatlığından sonra kadroya geri döndü",
    "source": "Sky.de",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 15:52"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.3,
    "summary_tr": "Kompany teknik alanda olmayabilir",
    "source": "Nacionale",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 09:46"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Karetsas band sakatlığından sonra kadroya geri döndü",
    "source": "Kicker",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 18:23"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Chukwuemeka sakatlık sonrası kadroda ve formda",
    "source": "Yahoo Sports",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 17:46"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.4,
    "summary_tr": "Albert kadro dışı, etkisi belirsiz",
    "source": "LigaInsider",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 18:10"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Conté sakatlık gerilemesi yaşadı",
    "source": "Bulinews",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 12:36"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "rotation",
    "category_tr": "Rotasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Kovac iki genç oyuncuyu kadro dışı bıraktı, derinlik gösteriyor",
    "source": "Ruhr Nachrichten",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 10:14"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}