{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-chelsea-manchester-united",
 "competition": "Premier League",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Chelsea",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/363.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Manchester United",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/360.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 2,
  "away": 0
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T15:46:24Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.76,
  "score_probability": 0.0928,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4529,
   "draw": 0.2537,
   "away": 0.2934
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.64,
   "away": 1.28
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1189
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5586,
   "btts": 0.5876,
   "home_scores": 0.806,
   "away_scores": 0.722,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3462
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.76,
    "probability": 0.0928
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.75,
    "probability": 0.0828
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.7,
    "probability": 0.0325
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 4,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.673,
    "probability": 0.0057
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 5,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.668,
    "probability": 0.0006
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0596,
    0.0634,
    0.0442,
    0.0189,
    0.006,
    0.0015
   ],
   [
    0.0828,
    0.1189,
    0.0725,
    0.0309,
    0.0099,
    0.0025
   ],
   [
    0.0725,
    0.0928,
    0.0594,
    0.0254,
    0.0081,
    0.0021
   ],
   [
    0.0396,
    0.0508,
    0.0325,
    0.0139,
    0.0044,
    0.0011
   ],
   [
    0.0163,
    0.0208,
    0.0133,
    0.0057,
    0.0018,
    0.0005
   ],
   [
    0.0053,
    0.0068,
    0.0044,
    0.0019,
    0.0006,
    0.0002
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.4529,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4527,
   "draw": 0.2537,
   "away": 0.2935
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T11:01:56Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Chelsea Lacroix sakatlığı ve yoğun fikstürle mücadele ediyor; United Sesko'suz ve kriz içinde. Her iki takımdaki sakatlıklar ve moral sorunları normalden düşük bir tempo ve az gol beklentisi yaratıyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T18:09:53Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -12.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4314,
   "draw": 0.2733,
   "away": 0.2953
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Maxence Lacroix ciddi hamstring sakatlığı riski",
    "source": "Chelsea Football Club, Talk Chelsea",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.4,
    "summary_tr": "Cole Palmer maçı kaçırma ihtimali",
    "source": "London Evening Standard",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Carabao Cup sonrası sadece 3 gün dinlenme",
    "source": "Fixture list",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Penaltılarda elenme sonrası moral düşük",
    "source": "Vietnam.vn",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Caicedo ve Gusto sakatlık durumu belirsiz",
    "source": "Chelsea Football Club",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.95,
    "summary_tr": "Benjamin Sesko Ocak'a kadar sakatlıkta",
    "source": "BBC, Manchester United",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Bruno Fernandes kaptan olarak dönüyor",
    "source": "Ajansspor, Manchester Evening News",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Mainoo pozitif güncelleme, oynayabilir",
    "source": "Manchester United",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Kriz derinleşiyor, son 5 maçta 1 puan",
    "source": "Goal.com, Manchester Evening News",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Rashford ve Shaw durumu belirsiz",
    "source": "London Evening Standard",
    "published_at": null
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}