{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-erzurumspor-corum-fk",
 "competition": "Trendyol Süper Lig",
 "round": 10,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T10:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Erzurumspor",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/19267.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Çorum FK",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/132334.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 1,
  "away": 3
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T14:30:56Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.69,
  "score_probability": 0.1329,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.346,
   "draw": 0.2787,
   "away": 0.3753
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.25,
   "away": 1.312
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1329
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.472,
   "btts": 0.5277,
   "home_scores": 0.7135,
   "away_scores": 0.7307,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.271
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.69,
    "probability": 0.1329
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.674,
    "probability": 0.0949
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.662,
    "probability": 0.083
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.641,
    "probability": 0.0835
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.63,
    "probability": 0.0901
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0835,
    0.0949,
    0.0664,
    0.029,
    0.0095,
    0.0025
   ],
   [
    0.0901,
    0.1329,
    0.083,
    0.0363,
    0.0119,
    0.0031
   ],
   [
    0.0603,
    0.0791,
    0.0519,
    0.0227,
    0.0074,
    0.002
   ],
   [
    0.0251,
    0.0329,
    0.0216,
    0.0095,
    0.0031,
    0.0008
   ],
   [
    0.0078,
    0.0103,
    0.0068,
    0.003,
    0.001,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.002,
    0.0026,
    0.0017,
    0.0007,
    0.0002,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.3753,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3367,
   "draw": 0.2965,
   "away": 0.3668
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T08:46:39Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Erzurumspor savunma eksikliğiyle ev sahibidir; Çorum FK önemli stopper Söyünsüz ve son deplasman mağlubiyetiyle geliyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T08:46:39Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3557,
   "draw": 0.2919,
   "away": 0.3524
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Savunma oyuncusu eksikliği rakip gol şansını artırabilir",
    "source": "Eskişehir Durum",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 14:04"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son dört maçta üç galibiyet bir beraberlikle iyi form",
    "source": "Mynet",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 10:30"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Burak Yılmaz hazırlıklarda görev alıyor, rol belirsiz",
    "source": "Son Dakika",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 14:37"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Son deplasmanda Göztepe'ye kaybedildi, dış sahada dalgalı",
    "source": "Mynet",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 10:30"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}