{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-fenerbahce-goztepe",
 "competition": "Trendyol Süper Lig",
 "round": 10,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T16:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Fenerbahçe",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/436.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Göztepe",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/789.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 1,
  "away": 2
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-01T09:11:28Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "favourite_3plus_goals",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.957,
  "score_probability": 0.076,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.6797,
   "draw": 0.1865,
   "away": 0.1337
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 2.358,
   "away": 0.964
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 0,
   "probability": 0.1003
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.645,
   "btts": 0.5642,
   "home_scores": 0.9054,
   "away_scores": 0.6186,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.505
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.999,
    "probability": 0.0967
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.983,
    "probability": 0.081
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.982,
    "probability": 0.1003
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.957,
    "probability": 0.076
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.938,
    "probability": 0.0366
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0402,
    0.0307,
    0.0168,
    0.0054,
    0.0013,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.081,
    0.0861,
    0.0395,
    0.0127,
    0.0031,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.1003,
    0.0967,
    0.0466,
    0.015,
    0.0036,
    0.0007
   ],
   [
    0.0788,
    0.076,
    0.0366,
    0.0118,
    0.0028,
    0.0005
   ],
   [
    0.0465,
    0.0448,
    0.0216,
    0.0069,
    0.0017,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0219,
    0.0211,
    0.0102,
    0.0033,
    0.0008,
    0.0002
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.6797,
  "level": "high",
  "level_tr": "yüksek",
  "banko": true,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.661,
  "band": [
   0.6,
   0.7
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.68,
   "draw": 0.185,
   "away": 0.135
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T14:30:57Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Fenerbahçe cezalı ve sakatlıklı kadroyla yeni hocanın ilk maçına çıkıyor; Göztepe 3 galibiyetle formda ve dinlenme avantajı var.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T14:30:57Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 3.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.6512,
   "draw": 0.1986,
   "away": 0.1502
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Archie Brown 3 maç cezalı, sol bek eksikliği",
    "source": "Euronews.com",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 07:47"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Nathan Aké sakatlık şüphesiyle muhtemel 11'de yok",
    "source": "Fotomaç",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 11:26"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Dirk Kuyt ilk maçında yeni teknik direktör etkisi",
    "source": "Hürriyet",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 09:01"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Derbi yenilgisi sonrası moral düşük, çıkış aranıyor",
    "source": "GZT",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 12:46"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son 3 lig maçında galibiyet, iyi formda",
    "source": "fixture data",
    "published_at": "2026-10-25 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.4,
    "summary_tr": "Burak Yılmaz cezalı, kadroda olmayacak",
    "source": "Haberler.com",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 13:13"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Fenerbahçe'ye göre bir gün daha dinlenme avantajı",
    "source": "fixture data",
    "published_at": "2026-10-25 00:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}