{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-fredrikstad-rosenborg",
 "competition": "Norveç Eliteserien",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Fredrikstad",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3039.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Rosenborg",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/438.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 0,
  "away": 3
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T18:00:34Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "expected_points": 0.867,
  "score_probability": 0.0983,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2238,
   "draw": 0.2337,
   "away": 0.5426
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.152,
   "away": 1.898
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1087
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5879,
   "btts": 0.5867,
   "home_scores": 0.684,
   "away_scores": 0.8501,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.204
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.867,
    "probability": 0.0983
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.853,
    "probability": 0.0847
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.804,
    "probability": 0.0358
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.795,
    "probability": 0.0853
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.775,
    "probability": 0.0065
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0525,
    0.0847,
    0.0853,
    0.054,
    0.0256,
    0.0097
   ],
   [
    0.0494,
    0.1087,
    0.0983,
    0.0622,
    0.0295,
    0.0112
   ],
   [
    0.0314,
    0.0596,
    0.0566,
    0.0358,
    0.017,
    0.0065
   ],
   [
    0.0121,
    0.0229,
    0.0217,
    0.0138,
    0.0065,
    0.0025
   ],
   [
    0.0035,
    0.0066,
    0.0063,
    0.004,
    0.0019,
    0.0007
   ],
   [
    0.0008,
    0.0015,
    0.0014,
    0.0009,
    0.0004,
    0.0002
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.5426,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2239,
   "draw": 0.2338,
   "away": 0.5423
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T12:41:10Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Fredrikstad kötü formda ve evde toparlanmaya çalışırken; Rosenborg iyi formda ancak Chiakha sakatlığı ve teknik direktör memnuniyetsizi avantajı azaltıyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T12:41:11Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2105,
   "draw": 0.2416,
   "away": 0.5479
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 maçta 3 beraberlik 2 mağlubiyet, son iki deplasmanda 8 gol yedi",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-25 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "İki deplasman sonrası ev sahibi olma motivasyonu",
    "source": "Fredrikstad Fotballklubb",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 13:48"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik direktör Røjkjær zorlu süreci kabul etti",
    "source": "Fredriksstad Blad",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 09:14"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Ligde kalma/kupa mücadelesi için kritik hafta",
    "source": "Norsk Tipping",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 12:29"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Nyberg ciddi sakatlıkla dışarıda",
    "source": "Rosenborg",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 09:01"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Takım madalya/ Avrupa yeri için oynuyor",
    "source": "tipsbladet.no",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 09:25"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son iki deplasma maçını 3-0 kazandılar",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-24 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Solbakken performansdan memnun değil",
    "source": "adressa.no",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 14:39"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}