{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-guingamp-saint-etienne",
 "competition": "Fransa Ligue 2",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T19:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Guingamp",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/171.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Saint-Étienne",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/178.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 3,
  "away": 0
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-01T09:11:29Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.883,
  "score_probability": 0.1121,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2139,
   "draw": 0.2539,
   "away": 0.5322
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 0.978,
   "away": 1.678
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.121
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.4955,
   "btts": 0.5132,
   "home_scores": 0.6239,
   "away_scores": 0.8133,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.1895
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.883,
    "probability": 0.1121
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.868,
    "probability": 0.0967
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.798,
    "probability": 0.0264
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.796,
    "probability": 0.0989
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.775,
    "probability": 0.0036
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.076,
    0.1121,
    0.0989,
    0.0553,
    0.0232,
    0.0078
   ],
   [
    0.0629,
    0.121,
    0.0967,
    0.0541,
    0.0227,
    0.0076
   ],
   [
    0.0336,
    0.0564,
    0.0473,
    0.0264,
    0.0111,
    0.0037
   ],
   [
    0.0109,
    0.0184,
    0.0154,
    0.0086,
    0.0036,
    0.0012
   ],
   [
    0.0027,
    0.0045,
    0.0038,
    0.0021,
    0.0009,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0005,
    0.0009,
    0.0007,
    0.0004,
    0.0002,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.5322,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2139,
   "draw": 0.2537,
   "away": 0.5324
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T18:00:52Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Guingamp iki sakatlıkla boğuşurken infirmari boşalıyor; Saint-Étienne kaleci Larsonneur dahil üç sakatlıkla büyük kayıp yaşıyor, ama iki önemli dönüş var. Ev sahibi hafif avantaj.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T09:56:02Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -12.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2312,
   "draw": 0.2758,
   "away": 0.493
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Darly Nlandu sakatlığıyla birkaç hafta dışarıda",
    "source": "Foot National",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 06:19"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Bilinmeyen oyuncu bilek sakatlığı 4 hafta",
    "source": "Le Télégramme",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 12:26"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "İnfirmari boşalıyor, oyuncular dönüyor",
    "source": "antichambre.eu",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 19:30"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fans",
    "category_tr": "Taraftar",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Kop Rouge tribün yürüyüşü düzenliyor",
    "source": "Le Télégramme",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 06:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Lider Saint-Étienne'e karşı ekstra motivasyon",
    "source": "Actu.fr",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 05:10"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "summary_tr": "Kaleci Larsonneur diz iç yan bandı, uzun süre dışarıda",
    "source": "ASSE",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 09:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Svetlin ve Eymard da sakat, kadro daralıyor",
    "source": "MadeInSaint-Etienne",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 13:14"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Aylardır sakat olan oyuncu gruba döndü",
    "source": "EVECT.fr",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 19:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Önemli bir oyuncu hafta başında döndü",
    "source": "Peuple-Vert.fr",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 17:04"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fans",
    "category_tr": "Taraftar",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "850 deplasman taraftarı bekleniyor",
    "source": "Le Télégramme",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 19:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}