{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-kocaelispor-caykur-rizespor",
 "competition": "Trendyol Süper Lig",
 "round": 10,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T13:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Kocaelispor",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/995.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Çaykur Rizespor",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/7656.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 0,
  "away": 0
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T15:46:25Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.693,
  "score_probability": 0.092,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3335,
   "draw": 0.2727,
   "away": 0.3938
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.26,
   "away": 1.39
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1299
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.494,
   "btts": 0.5441,
   "home_scores": 0.7163,
   "away_scores": 0.7509,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2655
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.693,
    "probability": 0.092
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.687,
    "probability": 0.086
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.675,
    "probability": 0.1299
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.626,
    "probability": 0.0251
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.622,
    "probability": 0.0768
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0768,
    0.092,
    0.0683,
    0.0316,
    0.011,
    0.0031
   ],
   [
    0.0828,
    0.1299,
    0.086,
    0.0398,
    0.0138,
    0.0038
   ],
   [
    0.0561,
    0.078,
    0.0542,
    0.0251,
    0.0087,
    0.0024
   ],
   [
    0.0236,
    0.0327,
    0.0228,
    0.0105,
    0.0037,
    0.001
   ],
   [
    0.0074,
    0.0103,
    0.0072,
    0.0033,
    0.0012,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0019,
    0.0026,
    0.0018,
    0.0008,
    0.0003,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.3938,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3299,
   "draw": 0.2792,
   "away": 0.3909
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T11:01:55Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Kocaelispor 3 sakatlıyla, Rizespor PFDK cezaları ve teknik krizle maça giriyor; deplasman takımı daha az dinlenmiş.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T11:01:56Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3439,
   "draw": 0.2862,
   "away": 0.3699
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Üç ana oyuncu sakatlık nedeniyle kadroda yok",
    "source": "Kocaeli Gazetesi",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 07:25"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.85,
    "summary_tr": "PFDK cezaları ile oyuncu eksikliği riski",
    "source": "2 Mart Gazetesi",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 08:17"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik kadro krizı hazırlıkları etkiliyor",
    "source": "Çağdaş Kocaeli Gazetesi",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 12:37"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Futbolcular galibiyet için söz verdi",
    "source": "Taka Gazete",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 08:35"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Son maçtan 5 gün sonra oynama yorgunluğu",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 00:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}