{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-lincoln-city-birmingham-city",
 "competition": "Championship",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Lincoln City",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/314.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Birmingham City",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/392.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 1,
  "away": 3
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T15:46:26Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.745,
  "score_probability": 0.0984,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2998,
   "draw": 0.2713,
   "away": 0.4289
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.178,
   "away": 1.456
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1293
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.4901,
   "btts": 0.5369,
   "home_scores": 0.6921,
   "away_scores": 0.7668,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2441
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.745,
    "probability": 0.0984
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.736,
    "probability": 0.0896
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.672,
    "probability": 0.0256
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.672,
    "probability": 0.1293
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.65,
    "probability": 0.0037
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0779,
    0.0984,
    0.0761,
    0.0369,
    0.0134,
    0.0039
   ],
   [
    0.0784,
    0.1293,
    0.0896,
    0.0435,
    0.0158,
    0.0046
   ],
   [
    0.0498,
    0.0725,
    0.0528,
    0.0256,
    0.0093,
    0.0027
   ],
   [
    0.0196,
    0.0285,
    0.0207,
    0.0101,
    0.0037,
    0.0011
   ],
   [
    0.0058,
    0.0084,
    0.0061,
    0.003,
    0.0011,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0014,
    0.002,
    0.0014,
    0.0007,
    0.0003,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.4289,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.295,
   "draw": 0.28,
   "away": 0.425
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T11:01:56Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Lincoln Burnley zaferiyle moral kazandı, sakatlık riski var; Birmingham formda ama forvet mutsuzluğu ve Priske belirsizliği olumsuz, Man Utd transferi olumlu sürpriz olabilir",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T10:07:01Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": 5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -2.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3205,
   "draw": 0.2711,
   "away": 0.4084
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Burnley'e 4-1 galibiyetle moral yüksek, üç yenilgi sonrası toparlanma",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-24 16:40"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Tottenham kiralık oyuncusu sakatlık güncellemesi, kadroda eksiklik riski",
    "source": "The Stacey West",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 15:40"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik direktör 'Korkmuyoruz' diyerek Birmingham maçına güvenli yaklaşım",
    "source": "The Stacey West",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 06:21"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fans",
    "category_tr": "Taraftar",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "15. yıl kutlamaları ve efsane oyuncu töreni tribünleri canlandırabilir",
    "source": "The Stacey West",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 21:45"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son dört maçta üç galibiyet, Cardiff'e yenilgiyle seri kırıldı",
    "source": "BBC",
    "published_at": "2026-10-24 17:28"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Sakatlıktan dönen forvet kadroya dönüş, hücum gücü artabilir",
    "source": "The Stacey West",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 17:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Forvetin mutsuzluğu ve Ocak transfer planları vestiyer atmosferini bozabilir",
    "source": "The Stacey West",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 15:44"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "August Priske fitness güncellemesi, düzenli başlangıç yapanın durumu belirsiz",
    "source": "The72",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 07:15"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Man Utd'dan gelen yeni oyuncu test edilecek, takıma kalite katarak etkileyebilir",
    "source": "Football League World",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 07:45"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}