{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-mechelen-genk",
 "competition": "Belçika Pro League",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Mechelen",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/7879.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Genk",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/938.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 1,
  "away": 0
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T18:00:36Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "expected_points": 0.826,
  "score_probability": 0.0967,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2494,
   "draw": 0.245,
   "away": 0.5056
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.182,
   "away": 1.768
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1148
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5655,
   "btts": 0.5805,
   "home_scores": 0.6933,
   "away_scores": 0.8293,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.219
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.826,
    "probability": 0.0967
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.817,
    "probability": 0.0871
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.763,
    "probability": 0.0337
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.743,
    "probability": 0.0818
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.735,
    "probability": 0.0059
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0578,
    0.0871,
    0.0818,
    0.0482,
    0.0213,
    0.0075
   ],
   [
    0.0564,
    0.1148,
    0.0967,
    0.057,
    0.0252,
    0.0089
   ],
   [
    0.0366,
    0.0646,
    0.0571,
    0.0337,
    0.0149,
    0.0053
   ],
   [
    0.0144,
    0.0255,
    0.0225,
    0.0133,
    0.0059,
    0.0021
   ],
   [
    0.0043,
    0.0075,
    0.0067,
    0.0039,
    0.0017,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.001,
    0.0018,
    0.0016,
    0.0009,
    0.0004,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.5056,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2438,
   "draw": 0.2537,
   "away": 0.5025
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T12:41:10Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Mechelen formsuz, Genk ise Heymans cezası ve psikolojik faktörlerle mücadele ediyor; iki forvetli sistem denemesi belirsizlik yaratıyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T12:41:10Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -8.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2571,
   "draw": 0.258,
   "away": 0.485
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 maçta 2 mağlubiyet, 1 beraberlik, 1 dostluk maçı mağlubiyeti ve 1 galibiyetle formsuzluk.",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-11 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Mike Eerdhuijzen takımda rahat hissediyor, olumlu atmosfer.",
    "source": "GVA",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 10:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.95,
    "summary_tr": "Daan Heymans cezalı, kadroda yok, önemli kayıp.",
    "source": "Sporza",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 10:41"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Thorup iki forvetli sisteme geçmeyi düşünüyor, taktiksel sürpriz.",
    "source": "VoetbalFocus",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 14:53"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Arbnor Muja kas yarasından döndü, kadro seçeneği arttı.",
    "source": "HBVL",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 23:59"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son iki lig maçını kazanarak (Kortrijk, Standard) iyi form yakaladı.",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-25 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Peter Maes 'Genk Mechelen'de kazanamaz' dedi, psikolojik dezavantaj.",
    "source": "HBVL",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 23:59"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}