{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-milan-inter",
 "competition": "Serie A",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T19:45:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Milan",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/103.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Inter",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/110.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 3,
  "away": 1
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-01T09:11:30Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "expected_points": 0.786,
  "score_probability": 0.0945,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.278,
   "draw": 0.2469,
   "away": 0.475
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.278,
   "away": 1.73
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1147
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5786,
   "btts": 0.599,
   "home_scores": 0.7214,
   "away_scores": 0.8227,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2387
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.786,
    "probability": 0.0945
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.771,
    "probability": 0.08
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.726,
    "probability": 0.0348
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.698,
    "probability": 0.0064
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.695,
    "probability": 0.0739
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0549,
    0.08,
    0.0739,
    0.0426,
    0.0184,
    0.0064
   ],
   [
    0.0577,
    0.1147,
    0.0945,
    0.0545,
    0.0236,
    0.0082
   ],
   [
    0.0403,
    0.0698,
    0.0604,
    0.0348,
    0.0151,
    0.0052
   ],
   [
    0.0172,
    0.0297,
    0.0257,
    0.0148,
    0.0064,
    0.0022
   ],
   [
    0.0055,
    0.0095,
    0.0082,
    0.0047,
    0.002,
    0.0007
   ],
   [
    0.0014,
    0.0024,
    0.0021,
    0.0012,
    0.0005,
    0.0002
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.475,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2663,
   "draw": 0.2663,
   "away": 0.4673
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T18:00:52Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Milan Tomori kaybı ve yoğun fikstürle zayıflıyor; Inter 5 eksik ve kaleci belirsizliği olsa da iyi formda.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T18:00:52Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -12.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -3.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2494,
   "draw": 0.2533,
   "away": 0.4973
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.95,
    "summary_tr": "Tomori üst bel yaralanmasıyla derby ve 1 ay dışarıda",
    "source": "Goal.com",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 07:03"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son 2 haftada 2 Avrupa deplasmanı (Salzburg, Bournemouth)",
    "source": "Milan fixtures",
    "published_at": "2026-10-22 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.4,
    "summary_tr": "Rabiot ve 3 oyuncu dönüş mücadelesi içinde",
    "source": "Il Giornale d'Italia",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 17:39"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 maçta 2 galibiyet 3 mağlubiyet, performans dalgalı",
    "source": "Milan fixtures",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Amorim taktiksel değişiklikler ve Cissè kararı bekleniyor",
    "source": "Sky Sport",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 07:30"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "5 oyuncu eksik rapor edildi, isimler belirtilmedi",
    "source": "SOS Fanta",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 22:28"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "rotation",
    "category_tr": "Rotasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.75,
    "summary_tr": "Kalede Provedel-Martinez tartışması, kararsızlık var",
    "source": "La Gazzetta dello Sport",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 10:46"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 maçta 4 galibiyet, şampiyonlar ligi deplasman dahil",
    "source": "Inter fixtures",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.85,
    "summary_tr": "Son 2 haftada 2 Şampiyonlar Ligi deplasmanı (Brugge, Şakhtar)",
    "source": "Inter fixtures",
    "published_at": "2026-10-21 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Chivu rotasyon ve Thuram yanındaki isim kararı verecek",
    "source": "Sky Sport",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 07:30"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}