{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-10-31-peterborough-united-luton-town",
 "competition": "İngiltere League One",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Peterborough United",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/342.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Luton Town",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/301.png"
 },
 "status": "finished",
 "result": {
  "home": 0,
  "away": 2
 },
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-31T18:00:37Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 3
  },
  "score_rule": "high_scoring",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "expected_points": 0.747,
  "score_probability": 0.0436,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2771,
   "draw": 0.2279,
   "away": 0.495
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.438,
   "away": 1.968
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.0986
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.6614,
   "btts": 0.6607,
   "home_scores": 0.7626,
   "away_scores": 0.8603,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2454
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.796,
    "probability": 0.0924
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.764,
    "probability": 0.0606
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.747,
    "probability": 0.0436
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.714,
    "probability": 0.0103
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.71,
    "probability": 0.0642
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0379,
    0.0606,
    0.0642,
    0.0421,
    0.0207,
    0.0082
   ],
   [
    0.043,
    0.0986,
    0.0924,
    0.0606,
    0.0298,
    0.0117
   ],
   [
    0.0343,
    0.0675,
    0.0664,
    0.0436,
    0.0214,
    0.0084
   ],
   [
    0.0164,
    0.0324,
    0.0318,
    0.0209,
    0.0103,
    0.004
   ],
   [
    0.0059,
    0.0116,
    0.0114,
    0.0075,
    0.0037,
    0.0015
   ],
   [
    0.0017,
    0.0033,
    0.0033,
    0.0022,
    0.0011,
    0.0004
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.495,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2736,
   "draw": 0.2338,
   "away": 0.4925
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-31T12:41:10Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Peterborough sakatlık, ceza ve kriziyle zayıflıyor; Luton formda ama gol kralı sakat.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T09:52:34Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -15.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2436,
   "draw": 0.2363,
   "away": 0.5201
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Harry Leonard cezalı, kadroda yer almayacak",
    "source": "Dave.Sport",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 10:29"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Sakatlıklar artıyor, beş değişiklik zorunlu olabilir",
    "source": "Peterborough Telegraph",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 14:30"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "rotation",
    "category_tr": "Rotasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Beş değişiklik ve yeni forma denenebilir",
    "source": "Peterborough Telegraph",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 08:51"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Takım düşme mücadelesinde, son beşte bir galibiyet",
    "source": "Peterborough Telegraph",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 23:48"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "club_management",
    "category_tr": "Yönetim",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Kulüp sahibi ayrılma vaadi, ortam gergin",
    "source": "Football Lowdown",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 10:45"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Gol kralı Nahki Wells sakat, oynama şüpheli",
    "source": "Bernews",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 21:40"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son üç lig maçında tam puan alındı",
    "source": "Vital Football",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 08:55"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Taraftar güven artıyor, moral yüksek",
    "source": "Vital Football",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 09:16"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Eski West Ham yeteneği takıma uydu",
    "source": "Football Lowdown",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 14:55"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}