{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-01-arezzo-ascoli",
 "competition": "İtalya Serie B",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-01T14:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Arezzo",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3345.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Ascoli",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3346.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.767,
  "score_probability": 0.1036,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2861,
   "draw": 0.2727,
   "away": 0.4412
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.128,
   "away": 1.46
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.13
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.4786,
   "btts": 0.5254,
   "home_scores": 0.6763,
   "away_scores": 0.7678,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2344
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.767,
    "probability": 0.1036
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.754,
    "probability": 0.0904
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.688,
    "probability": 0.0248
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.675,
    "probability": 0.13
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.667,
    "probability": 0.0034
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0814,
    0.1036,
    0.0801,
    0.039,
    0.0142,
    0.0042
   ],
   [
    0.0786,
    0.13,
    0.0904,
    0.044,
    0.0161,
    0.0047
   ],
   [
    0.0478,
    0.0698,
    0.051,
    0.0248,
    0.0091,
    0.0026
   ],
   [
    0.018,
    0.0263,
    0.0192,
    0.0093,
    0.0034,
    0.001
   ],
   [
    0.0051,
    0.0074,
    0.0054,
    0.0026,
    0.001,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0011,
    0.0017,
    0.0012,
    0.0006,
    0.0002,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.4412,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2794,
   "draw": 0.284,
   "away": 0.4366
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T09:59:32Z",
  "source_tr": "bahis + tahmin piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Arezzo teknik direktör krizi, sakatlık ve kötü formla mücadele ediyor; Ascoli ise üst üste iki büyük zafer, yüksek moral ve güçlü deplasman desteğiyle favori rolünde.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T09:59:32Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2335,
   "draw": 0.2612,
   "away": 0.5053
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Bucchi istifa baskısı altında, yönetim memnunsuz",
    "source": "Corriere di Arezzo",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 08:59"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Chierico bareyle çıkarıldı, oynama riski var",
    "source": "Pianeta Serie B",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 21:53"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "summary_tr": "Son iki lig maçı kaybedildi, form kötü",
    "source": "Quotidiano Sportivo",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 07:33"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "club_management",
    "category_tr": "Yönetim",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Ritiro iptal edildi, kulüp içi gerginlik",
    "source": "Corriere di Arezzo",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 16:56"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Antrenör için kritik maç, motivasyon artabilir",
    "source": "Corriere di Arezzo",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 16:56"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "summary_tr": "Son iki maçta 6-1 ve 2-0 galibiyetler",
    "source": "La Nuova Riviera",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 06:53"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Takım moral yüksek, zafer serisi hedefliyor",
    "source": "Quotidiano Sportivo",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 07:43"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fans",
    "category_tr": "Taraftar",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "summary_tr": "600 deplasman bileti tükendi, tribün dolu",
    "source": "Gazzetta di Ascoli",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 02:08"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Serie A ve B'de en iyi savunma iddiası",
    "source": "Gazzetta di Ascoli",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 02:08"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": {
  "tr": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-arezzo-ascoli-tr.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  },
  "en": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-arezzo-ascoli-en.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  }
 },
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}