{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-01-basaksehir-samsunspor",
 "competition": "Trendyol Süper Lig",
 "round": 10,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-01T13:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Başakşehir",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/7914.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Samsunspor",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/11429.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-01T11:19:04Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "expected_points": 0.877,
  "score_probability": 0.1008,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.5422,
   "draw": 0.2439,
   "away": 0.214
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.78,
   "away": 1.038
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1159
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5348,
   "btts": 0.5424,
   "home_scores": 0.8314,
   "away_scores": 0.6458,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3996
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.877,
    "probability": 0.1008
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.875,
    "probability": 0.0982
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.807,
    "probability": 0.0302
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.805,
    "probability": 0.0946
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 4,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.781,
    "probability": 0.0047
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0652,
    0.0565,
    0.0322,
    0.0111,
    0.0029,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.1008,
    0.1159,
    0.0573,
    0.0198,
    0.0051,
    0.0011
   ],
   [
    0.0946,
    0.0982,
    0.051,
    0.0176,
    0.0046,
    0.001
   ],
   [
    0.0561,
    0.0583,
    0.0302,
    0.0105,
    0.0027,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.025,
    0.0259,
    0.0135,
    0.0047,
    0.0012,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0089,
    0.0092,
    0.0048,
    0.0017,
    0.0004,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.5422,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.5423,
   "draw": 0.2438,
   "away": 0.2139
  },
  "as_of": "2026-11-01T11:17:30Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Samsunspor 5 ardışık mağlubiyet, 3 sakat/cezalı ve teknik direktörsüz deplasmana çıkıyor; Başakşehir evinde görece stabil.",
  "as_of": "2026-11-01T11:17:30Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": 5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -15.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.6008,
   "draw": 0.2319,
   "away": 0.1674
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Son 4 lig maçında 2 galibiyet, 1 beraberlik, 1 mağlubiyet",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.85,
    "summary_tr": "Başakşehir maçı öncesi 3 önemli oyuncu eksikliği",
    "source": "Haber 7",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 10:15"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik direktör Nenad Bjelica PFDK men cezası aldığı için koltukta yok",
    "source": "Samsun Gazetesi",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 06:52"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 lig maçının hepsini kaybetti, 15 gol yedi 3 gol attı",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-24 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "7 maçlık yenilgi serisi, takım moralı çok düşük",
    "source": "Haberler",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 09:54"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "club_management",
    "category_tr": "Yönetim",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "PFDK para cezası ve disiplin sorunları kulüp ortamını etkiliyor",
    "source": "Kanal 362",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 10:31"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}