{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-01-frosinone-torino",
 "competition": "Serie A",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-01T14:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Frosinone",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/4057.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Torino",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/239.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 2
  },
  "score_rule": "high_scoring",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.691,
  "score_probability": 0.0429,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4483,
   "draw": 0.2322,
   "away": 0.3195
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.87,
   "away": 1.558
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.0993
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.6656,
   "btts": 0.6725,
   "home_scores": 0.8459,
   "away_scores": 0.7894,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3545
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.736,
    "probability": 0.0884
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.704,
    "probability": 0.056
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.691,
    "probability": 0.0429
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 4,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.658,
    "probability": 0.0104
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 5,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.649,
    "probability": 0.0015
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0372,
    0.0458,
    0.0394,
    0.0205,
    0.008,
    0.0025
   ],
   [
    0.056,
    0.0993,
    0.0737,
    0.0383,
    0.0149,
    0.0046
   ],
   [
    0.0567,
    0.0884,
    0.0689,
    0.0358,
    0.0139,
    0.0043
   ],
   [
    0.0354,
    0.0551,
    0.0429,
    0.0223,
    0.0087,
    0.0027
   ],
   [
    0.0165,
    0.0258,
    0.0201,
    0.0104,
    0.0041,
    0.0013
   ],
   [
    0.0062,
    0.0096,
    0.0075,
    0.0039,
    0.0015,
    0.0005
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.4483,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4427,
   "draw": 0.2452,
   "away": 0.3122
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T09:59:32Z",
  "source_tr": "bahis + tahmin piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Frosinone iyi formda ve ev avantajlı; Torino ise Mandragora ve Cacciamani sakatlıklarıyla güçlüğü çekiyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T10:07:01Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": 10.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.522,
   "draw": 0.2219,
   "away": 0.2561
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 2
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son 4 lig maçta 3 galibiyet 1 beraberlik, iyi form",
    "source": "Football Italia",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 19:35"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.3,
    "summary_tr": "DAZN raporu: kadroda sakatlık/ceza olabilir, detay yok",
    "source": "DAZN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 22:40"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Avrupa kupası bölgesinde, motivasyon yüksek",
    "source": "Askanews",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 19:55"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Perşembe maçı sonrası 3 gün dinlenme, yorulma riski",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 19:35"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Mandragora sakatlıkla dışarıda, DAZN onayı",
    "source": "DAZN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 23:19"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Cacciamani omuz sorunu, Frosinone maçı için şüpheli",
    "source": "La Gazzetta dello Sport",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 09:35"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Son ev maçında Como'ya 3-1 yenilgi, moral etkilenebilir",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fans",
    "category_tr": "Taraftar",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Misafir tribünü kapalı, dışarıda taraftar desteği yok",
    "source": "Toro.it",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 15:08"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Salı maçı sonrası 5 gün dinlenme, daha taze",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 00:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": {
  "tr": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-frosinone-torino-tr.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  },
  "en": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-frosinone-torino-en.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  }
 },
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}