{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-01-istanbulspor-mardin-1969",
 "competition": "TFF 1. Lig",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-01T13:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "İstanbulspor",
  "logo": null
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Mardin 1969",
  "logo": null
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "pre_match",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-01T12:10:10Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.82,
  "score_probability": 0.1265,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2565,
   "draw": 0.2863,
   "away": 0.4572
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 0.962,
   "away": 1.374
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1342
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.4135,
   "btts": 0.4679,
   "home_scores": 0.6179,
   "away_scores": 0.7469,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2092
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.82,
    "probability": 0.1265
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.781,
    "probability": 0.0878
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.712,
    "probability": 0.0193
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.707,
    "probability": 0.1342
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.695,
    "probability": 0.0021
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.1031,
    0.1265,
    0.0913,
    0.0418,
    0.0144,
    0.0039
   ],
   [
    0.0866,
    0.1342,
    0.0878,
    0.0402,
    0.0138,
    0.0038
   ],
   [
    0.0448,
    0.0615,
    0.0422,
    0.0193,
    0.0066,
    0.0018
   ],
   [
    0.0144,
    0.0197,
    0.0135,
    0.0062,
    0.0021,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.0035,
    0.0047,
    0.0033,
    0.0015,
    0.0005,
    0.0001
   ],
   [
    0.0007,
    0.0009,
    0.0006,
    0.0003,
    0.0001,
    0.0
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.4572,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2563,
   "draw": 0.2864,
   "away": 0.4573
  },
  "as_of": "2026-11-01T12:07:57Z",
  "source_tr": "maç günü piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Mardin 1969 son galibiyetle moral yüksek, deplasman hedefi puan almak. İstanbulspor için belirgin haber yok. Mardin'in gol beklentisi hafif artabilir.",
  "as_of": "2026-11-01T12:07:57Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": 0.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": 5.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2452,
   "draw": 0.2789,
   "away": 0.4758
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Takım deplasmanda puan hedefliyor, yüksek motivasyon",
    "source": "Gazetedetay",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 08:33"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Son maçta Manisa FK'ye 2-1 galibiyet aldı",
    "source": "Ankara'nın Sesi",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 19:22"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "İstanbulspor maçı için hazırlıklar tamamlandı",
    "source": "Bengü Türk",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 20:48"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fans",
    "category_tr": "Taraftar",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Kerimoğlu'dan destek çağrısı, tribün desteği bekleniyor",
    "source": "Mardin Haber Gazetesi",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 12:22"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}