{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-01-juventus-napoli",
 "competition": "Serie A",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-01T19:45:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Juventus",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/111.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Napoli",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/114.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "expected_points": 0.743,
  "score_probability": 0.102,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4228,
   "draw": 0.2756,
   "away": 0.3016
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.414,
   "away": 1.156
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1314
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.474,
   "btts": 0.5249,
   "home_scores": 0.7568,
   "away_scores": 0.6853,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3183
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.743,
    "probability": 0.102
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.729,
    "probability": 0.0884
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.683,
    "probability": 0.1314
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.665,
    "probability": 0.0241
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 4,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.644,
    "probability": 0.0033
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0828,
    0.0822,
    0.0511,
    0.0197,
    0.0057,
    0.0013
   ],
   [
    0.102,
    0.1314,
    0.0723,
    0.0279,
    0.0081,
    0.0019
   ],
   [
    0.0765,
    0.0884,
    0.0511,
    0.0197,
    0.0057,
    0.0013
   ],
   [
    0.0361,
    0.0417,
    0.0241,
    0.0093,
    0.0027,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.0127,
    0.0147,
    0.0085,
    0.0033,
    0.0009,
    0.0002
   ],
   [
    0.0036,
    0.0042,
    0.0024,
    0.0009,
    0.0003,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.4228,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4158,
   "draw": 0.2917,
   "away": 0.2924
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T18:39:14Z",
  "source_tr": "bahis + tahmin piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Juventus teknik direktör krizisi, kötü moral ve yoğun fikstürle Napoli'ye evinde geliyor; Napoli ise Lobotka sakatlığı dışında golcü formda ama savunma zayıf.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T18:39:14Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -12.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -8.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3971,
   "draw": 0.2948,
   "away": 0.3081
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.85,
    "summary_tr": "Spalletti geleceği belirsiz, geçici hoca ihtimali, Carnevali ile sert görüşme",
    "source": "Goal.com",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Genoa'ya 2-0 mağlubiyet, son 4 lig maçında 1 galibiyet, Spalletti özür diledi",
    "source": "LiveScore, Goal.com",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Avrupa Ligi ve lig yoğunluğu, Genoa deplasmanından 4 gün sonra ev sahipliği",
    "source": "Fixture list",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "club_management",
    "category_tr": "Yönetim",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Agnelli eksikliği hissediliyor, kulüp kriz havası",
    "source": "Goal.com (Borriello)",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.95,
    "summary_tr": "Lobotka ayak bileği sakatlığı, streçerle çıkarıldı, iyileşme süresi belirsiz",
    "source": "La Gazzetta, Football Italia, Goal.com",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Monza'da 4-1 galibiyet, golcüler formda (Politano, Lang), ama savunma güvenilmez",
    "source": "La Repubblica, The False 9",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Şampiyonlar Ligi ve lig yoğunluğu, Monza deplasmanından 4 gün sonra Juve deplasmanı",
    "source": "Fixture list",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "other",
    "category_tr": "Diğer",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "İki ardışık deplasman maçı (Monza, Juventus), yorgunluk riski",
    "source": "Fixture list",
    "published_at": null
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": {
  "tr": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-juventus-napoli-tr.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  },
  "en": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-juventus-napoli-en.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  }
 },
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}