{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-01-kasimpasa-besiktas",
 "competition": "Trendyol Süper Lig",
 "round": 10,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-01T16:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Kasımpaşa",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/6870.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Beşiktaş",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/1895.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 2
  },
  "expected_points": 0.933,
  "score_probability": 0.0995,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.1772,
   "draw": 0.2238,
   "away": 0.599
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 0.984,
   "away": 1.974
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1059
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5673,
   "btts": 0.5443,
   "home_scores": 0.6262,
   "away_scores": 0.8611,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.1705
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.933,
    "probability": 0.0995
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.931,
    "probability": 0.0975
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.885,
    "probability": 0.1012
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.866,
    "probability": 0.0322
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.849,
    "probability": 0.0655
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.057,
    0.0975,
    0.1012,
    0.0666,
    0.0329,
    0.013
   ],
   [
    0.046,
    0.1059,
    0.0995,
    0.0655,
    0.0323,
    0.0128
   ],
   [
    0.0251,
    0.0496,
    0.049,
    0.0322,
    0.0159,
    0.0063
   ],
   [
    0.0082,
    0.0163,
    0.0161,
    0.0106,
    0.0052,
    0.0021
   ],
   [
    0.002,
    0.004,
    0.004,
    0.0026,
    0.0013,
    0.0005
   ],
   [
    0.0004,
    0.0008,
    0.0008,
    0.0005,
    0.0003,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.599,
  "level": "medium_high",
  "level_tr": "orta-yüksek",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.606,
  "band": [
   0.55,
   0.6
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.1777,
   "draw": 0.2231,
   "away": 0.5992
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T18:35:00Z",
  "source_tr": "bahis + tahmin piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Kasımpaşa 3 gün önce kup maçı oynadı (yorgunluk riski); Beşiktaş'te Kökçü şüpheli ve yoğun Avrupa programı var. Her iki takımdan da hafif performans düşüşü beklenir.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T18:35:00Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -8.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.1855,
   "draw": 0.2388,
   "away": 0.5757
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.85,
    "summary_tr": "29 Ekim'de Türkiye Kupası Çorluspor maçı oynandı, lig maçına 3 gün kala yorgunluk/rotasyon riski",
    "source": "beinsports.com.tr, ensondakika.com.tr",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Son 4 maçta 3 galibiyet (Samsunspor 4-1, Eyüpspor 1-0, Çorluspor 3-0) ile moral yüksek",
    "source": "fixture list, beinsports.com.tr",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.75,
    "summary_tr": "Orkun Kökçü Kasımpaşa maçı için şüpheli, hedef Celtic deplasmanı olduğu için dinlendirilebilir",
    "source": "Habertürk, Fanatik, Milliyet",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Avrupa Ligi (Hoffenheim, Crystal Palace) ve lig (Trabzonspor, Başakşehir) yoğunluğu, 10 günde 4 maç",
    "source": "fixture list, GZT",
    "published_at": null
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": {
  "tr": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-kasimpasa-besiktas-tr.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  },
  "en": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-kasimpasa-besiktas-en.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  }
 },
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}