{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-01-liverpool-arsenal",
 "competition": "Premier League",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-01T16:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Liverpool",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/364.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Arsenal",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/359.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.699,
  "score_probability": 0.0893,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3289,
   "draw": 0.2687,
   "away": 0.4024
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.276,
   "away": 1.436
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1278
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5093,
   "btts": 0.5555,
   "home_scores": 0.7208,
   "away_scores": 0.7621,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2642
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.699,
    "probability": 0.0893
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.698,
    "probability": 0.0874
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.665,
    "probability": 0.1278
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.637,
    "probability": 0.0267
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.614,
    "probability": 0.0041
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0725,
    0.0893,
    0.0685,
    0.0328,
    0.0118,
    0.0034
   ],
   [
    0.0786,
    0.1278,
    0.0874,
    0.0418,
    0.015,
    0.0043
   ],
   [
    0.0541,
    0.0776,
    0.0557,
    0.0267,
    0.0096,
    0.0028
   ],
   [
    0.023,
    0.033,
    0.0237,
    0.0113,
    0.0041,
    0.0012
   ],
   [
    0.0073,
    0.0105,
    0.0076,
    0.0036,
    0.0013,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.0019,
    0.0027,
    0.0019,
    0.0009,
    0.0003,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.4024,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3227,
   "draw": 0.2796,
   "away": 0.3976
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T18:37:08Z",
  "source_tr": "bahis + tahmin piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Liverpool hafif yorgunluk ve sakatlıkla boğuşurken moral iyi; Arsenal ise anahtar sakatlıklar, düşük moral, teknik direktör baskısı ve yoğun fikstürle Anfield'e geliyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T18:37:08Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -2.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -10.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3501,
   "draw": 0.28,
   "away": 0.3699
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Szoboszlai, Munoz, Frimpong sakat, kadro derinliği azalır",
    "source": "London Evening Standard",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son 3 haftada 5 maç, yorgunluk ve rotasyon riski",
    "source": "Recent fixtures",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Carabao Cup'ta Chelsea'yi penaltılarla geçti, moral yüksek",
    "source": "Vietnam.vn",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 3,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Rice, Madueke sakat; Saliba, Saka, Calafiori şüpheli; dönüş ihtimali",
    "source": "London Evening Standard, Football London, The Sun",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Max Dowman kırmızı kartı, Liverpool maçı cezalı",
    "source": "This Is Anfield",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Fleetwood'a şok penaltı yenilgisi, Arteta eleştirilerde",
    "source": "Vietnam.vn, Football London",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Arteta kupa elenmesi sonrası baskı altında",
    "source": "Vietnam.vn",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Yoğun program, Fleetwood deplasmanı sonrası Anfield zorluğu",
    "source": "Recent fixtures",
    "published_at": null
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": {
  "tr": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-liverpool-arsenal-tr.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  },
  "en": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-liverpool-arsenal-en.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  }
 },
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}