{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-01-lommel-gent",
 "competition": "Belçika Pro League",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-01T17:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Lommel",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/22269.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Gent",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3611.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.865,
  "score_probability": 0.1024,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2227,
   "draw": 0.249,
   "away": 0.5284
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.044,
   "away": 1.728
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1185
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5238,
   "btts": 0.5385,
   "home_scores": 0.648,
   "away_scores": 0.8224,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.1978
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.865,
    "probability": 0.1024
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.86,
    "probability": 0.0975
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 2,
     "away": 3
    },
    "expected_points": 0.792,
    "probability": 0.0293
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.786,
    "probability": 0.0934
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 3,
     "away": 4
    },
    "expected_points": 0.767,
    "probability": 0.0044
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0682,
    0.1024,
    0.0934,
    0.0538,
    0.0232,
    0.008
   ],
   [
    0.0596,
    0.1185,
    0.0975,
    0.0561,
    0.0243,
    0.0084
   ],
   [
    0.0341,
    0.0589,
    0.0509,
    0.0293,
    0.0127,
    0.0044
   ],
   [
    0.0119,
    0.0205,
    0.0177,
    0.0102,
    0.0044,
    0.0015
   ],
   [
    0.0031,
    0.0053,
    0.0046,
    0.0027,
    0.0011,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.0006,
    0.0011,
    0.001,
    0.0006,
    0.0002,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.5284,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2189,
   "draw": 0.2542,
   "away": 0.5269
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T10:00:37Z",
  "source_tr": "bahis + tahmin piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Lommel yönetim yatırımı ve dinlenme avantajıyla; Gent sakatlık ve yoğun fikstür riskiyle sahaya çıkıyor, ev sahibi hafif avantajlı.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T10:07:01Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": 5.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -5.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.2481,
   "draw": 0.2569,
   "away": 0.4949
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 0,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "club_management",
    "category_tr": "Yönetim",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "City Football Group 23 milyon euro yatırım yaptı",
    "source": "City Xtra",
    "published_at": "2026-10-27 13:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Kaptan Schoofs takım ruhunu ve mücadeleyi övdü",
    "source": "HBVL",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 22:01"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Avrupa Kupası yok, evde daha uzun dinlenme",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-24 20:42"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "summary_tr": "Önemli oyuncu sakatlığı mücadele dışı bırakabilir",
    "source": "Voetbalkrant.com",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 05:30"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Hafta ortası Braga deplasmanı yorgunluk yaratıyor",
    "source": "VAVEL.com",
    "published_at": "2026-10-29 11:03"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Anderlecht'e 4-0 galibiyetle moral zirvede",
    "source": "Sporza",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26 05:20"
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": {
  "tr": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-lommel-gent-tr.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  },
  "en": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-01-lommel-gent-en.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:10Z"
  }
 },
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}