{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-02-genclerbirligi-alanyaspor",
 "competition": "Trendyol Süper Lig",
 "round": 10,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-02T17:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Gençlerbirliği",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/996.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Alanyaspor",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/9078.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:11Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_rule": "max_expected_points",
  "max_expected_points_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1
  },
  "expected_points": 0.698,
  "score_probability": 0.1342,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3553,
   "draw": 0.2818,
   "away": 0.3629
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.25,
   "away": 1.266
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1342
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.4603,
   "btts": 0.5187,
   "home_scores": 0.7135,
   "away_scores": 0.718,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.2754
  },
  "top_scores_by_expected_points": [
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.698,
    "probability": 0.1342
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 1
    },
    "expected_points": 0.66,
    "probability": 0.0959
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 0,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.651,
    "probability": 0.0872
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 0
    },
    "expected_points": 0.648,
    "probability": 0.0946
   },
   {
    "score": {
     "home": 1,
     "away": 2
    },
    "expected_points": 0.645,
    "probability": 0.0809
   }
  ],
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0872,
    0.0959,
    0.0647,
    0.0273,
    0.0086,
    0.0022
   ],
   [
    0.0946,
    0.1342,
    0.0809,
    0.0341,
    0.0108,
    0.0027
   ],
   [
    0.0631,
    0.0799,
    0.0506,
    0.0213,
    0.0068,
    0.0017
   ],
   [
    0.0263,
    0.0333,
    0.0211,
    0.0089,
    0.0028,
    0.0007
   ],
   [
    0.0082,
    0.0104,
    0.0066,
    0.0028,
    0.0009,
    0.0002
   ],
   [
    0.0021,
    0.0026,
    0.0016,
    0.0007,
    0.0002,
    0.0001
   ]
  ],
  "layer_weights": {
   "market": 1.0,
   "atmosphere": 0.0,
   "swarm": 0.0
  }
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "away",
  "probability": 0.3629,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "market": {
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3528,
   "draw": 0.2871,
   "away": 0.3601
  },
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T18:47:49Z",
  "source_tr": "bahis + tahmin piyasası"
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Gençlerbirliği Goutas sakatlığı, kötü form ve olası cezayla zorlanıyor; Alanyaspor yeni hoca Pereira ile uyum arayışında ama kup galibiyeti ve dinlenme avantajı var.",
  "as_of": "2026-10-29T18:47:49Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "home_goals_effect_pct": -12.0,
  "away_goals_effect_pct": -3.0,
  "weight_in_prediction": 0.0,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.3215,
   "draw": 0.2941,
   "away": 0.3844
  },
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1
  },
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "summary_tr": "Dimitris Goutas sakat, forma gösterdi",
    "source": "Son Dakika",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Son 5 lig maçında 4 mağlubiyet",
    "source": "Recent fixtures",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "summary_tr": "Konyaspor maçı saha olayları PFDK'ya gitti",
    "source": "Saray Medya",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "29 Ekim kup maçı yorucu olabilir",
    "source": "Haberimiz Var",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "coach",
    "category_tr": "Teknik direktör",
    "direction": -1,
    "severity": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8,
    "summary_tr": "Yeni teknik direktör João Pereira atandı",
    "source": "Son Dakika",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "Hwang Ui-jo kupada gol atıktı, 4-1 galibiyet",
    "source": "Hürriyet",
    "published_at": null
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "severity": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "summary_tr": "27 Ekim kup maçından 6 gün dinlenme",
    "source": "Recent fixtures",
    "published_at": null
   }
  ]
 },
 "swarm": null,
 "video": {
  "tr": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-02-genclerbirligi-alanyaspor-tr.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:11Z"
  },
  "en": {
   "url": "/videos/2026-11-02-genclerbirligi-alanyaspor-en.mp4",
   "prediction_updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:03:11Z"
  }
 },
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}