{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-04-flamengo-gremio",
 "competition": "Brasileirão Série A",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-04T22:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Flamengo",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/819.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Grêmio",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/6273.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-02T05:18:00Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_probability": 0.0799,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.8272,
   "draw": 0.1143,
   "away": 0.0585
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 3.11,
   "away": 0.776
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 0,
   "probability": 0.103
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.7446,
   "btts": 0.5182,
   "home_scores": 0.9554,
   "away_scores": 0.5398,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.6349
  },
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.023,
    0.0135,
    0.0062,
    0.0016,
    0.0003,
    0.0
   ],
   [
    0.0614,
    0.052,
    0.0192,
    0.005,
    0.001,
    0.0001
   ],
   [
    0.0993,
    0.0771,
    0.0299,
    0.0077,
    0.0015,
    0.0002
   ],
   [
    0.103,
    0.0799,
    0.031,
    0.008,
    0.0016,
    0.0002
   ],
   [
    0.08,
    0.0621,
    0.0241,
    0.0062,
    0.0012,
    0.0002
   ],
   [
    0.0498,
    0.0386,
    0.015,
    0.0039,
    0.0008,
    0.0001
   ]
  ]
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.8272,
  "level": "top",
  "level_tr": "en yüksek",
  "banko": true,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.878,
  "band": [
   0.8,
   1.0
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Flamengo iki temel oyuncusuz ama evde, dinli ve formda. Grêmio iki yıldızını kasıtlı cezalandırdı, kupa yarım finali yorgunluğu ve rotasyonla zayıfladı. Ev avantajı Flamengo'ya.",
  "as_of": "2026-11-02T05:16:35Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Gonzalo Plata 3. sarı kart cezasıyla maç dışı",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-11-01 02:10"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Lucas Paquetá hafif diz sakatlığıyla dışarıda",
    "source": "Terra",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 15:57"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Hafta sonu molası verildi, Grêmio'yla görece dinli",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-11-01 15:20"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Liderlik ve şampiyonluk baskısı için motivasyon yüksek",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-11-01 18:05"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Evde Grêmio'ya karşı en iyi lig rekoru korunuyor",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-11-01 00:23"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "suspension",
    "category_tr": "Ceza",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Weverton ve Carlos Vinícius kasıtlı 3. sarı kartla dışarıda",
    "source": "Correio do Povo",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 18:36"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Copa do Brasil yarı finali 3 gün önce oynandı",
    "source": "ESPN Brasil",
    "published_at": "2026-11-02 02:04"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "rotation",
    "category_tr": "Rotasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Teknik direktör Renato lig maçını önemsemedi, rotasyon yapacak",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-10-30 12:11"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Kupa önceliği ve düşme mücadelesi motivasyonu zayıflatıyor",
    "source": "ESPN Brasil",
    "published_at": "2026-11-02 02:04"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Atlético-MG'ye 2-0 galibiyetle moral iyi ama yorgun",
    "source": "OneFootball",
    "published_at": "2026-11-02 00:11"
   }
  ]
 },
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}