{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-05-ac-milan-ferencvarosi-tc",
 "competition": "UEFA Avrupa Ligi",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "AC Milan",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/103.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Ferencvárosi TC",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/622.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-02T18:29:26Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 0
  },
  "score_probability": 0.1032,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.7517,
   "draw": 0.154,
   "away": 0.0944
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 2.672,
   "away": 0.872
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 0,
   "probability": 0.1032
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.6872,
   "btts": 0.545,
   "home_scores": 0.9309,
   "away_scores": 0.5819,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.5639
  },
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0323,
    0.0218,
    0.011,
    0.0032,
    0.0007,
    0.0001
   ],
   [
    0.0739,
    0.0707,
    0.0294,
    0.0085,
    0.0019,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.1032,
    0.09,
    0.0392,
    0.0114,
    0.0025,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.0919,
    0.0801,
    0.0349,
    0.0102,
    0.0022,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.0614,
    0.0535,
    0.0233,
    0.0068,
    0.0015,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0328,
    0.0286,
    0.0125,
    0.0036,
    0.0008,
    0.0001
   ]
  ]
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.7517,
  "level": "very_high",
  "level_tr": "çok yüksek",
  "banko": true,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.78,
  "band": [
   0.7,
   0.8
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Milan sakatlık krizi ve yoğun fikstürle mücadele ederken derby zaferi moral verdi. Ferencváros iyi formda ve dinlenmiş. Milan favori ama sakatlıklar gol beklentisini düşürebilir.",
  "as_of": "2026-11-02T17:45:23Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Fikayo Tomori bir ay süreyle sakat, diğer oyuncular da sakat listede",
    "source": "Goal.com",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 07:03"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "13 günde 5 maç, derby sonrası 5 günde Avrupa Ligi maçı",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-11-05 17:45"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "rotation",
    "category_tr": "Rotasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Sakatlıklar ve yoğun fikstür rotasyonu zorunlu kılıyor",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-11-05 17:45"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Inter'e 3-1 galibiyeti moral sağladı",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Avrupa Ligi'nde 5 ardışık galibiyetle iyi form",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-22 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Son maçtan bu yana 14 gün dinlenme avantajı",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-22 00:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}