{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-05-celta-de-vigo-ru-saint-gilloise",
 "competition": "UEFA Avrupa Ligi",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Celta de Vigo",
  "logo": null
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "RU Saint-Gilloise",
  "logo": null
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-02T17:48:40Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_probability": 0.091,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.4344,
   "draw": 0.2626,
   "away": 0.303
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.536,
   "away": 1.246
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1244
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5262,
   "btts": 0.5649,
   "home_scores": 0.7848,
   "away_scores": 0.7123,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3313
  },
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0678,
    0.0712,
    0.0481,
    0.02,
    0.0062,
    0.0015
   ],
   [
    0.0892,
    0.1244,
    0.0738,
    0.0307,
    0.0096,
    0.0024
   ],
   [
    0.073,
    0.091,
    0.0567,
    0.0235,
    0.0073,
    0.0018
   ],
   [
    0.0374,
    0.0466,
    0.029,
    0.0121,
    0.0038,
    0.0009
   ],
   [
    0.0144,
    0.0179,
    0.0111,
    0.0046,
    0.0014,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.0044,
    0.0055,
    0.0034,
    0.0014,
    0.0004,
    0.0001
   ]
  ]
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.4344,
  "level": "low",
  "level_tr": "düşük",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.409,
  "band": [
   0.0,
   0.45
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Celta sakatlık, kötü form, ulusal yas ve transfer gündemiyle negatif; Saint-Gilloise için belirgin veri yok.",
  "as_of": "2026-11-02T17:47:58Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Rayo Vallecano'ya evde 3-0 yenilgi",
    "source": "Celta",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 17:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Maroan Sannadi zirvede sakatlandı",
    "source": "Comuniate",
    "published_at": "2026-11-02 09:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Toledo tren kazası ulusal yas etkisi",
    "source": "Diario AS",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 11:46"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Kupa del Rey iptali yoğunluğu azalttı",
    "source": "Comuniate",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28 10:41"
   }
  ]
 },
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}