{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-05-sc-uniao-torreense-ararat-armenia-fa",
 "competition": "UEFA Avrupa Ligi",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "SC União Torreense",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/21615.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Ararat-Armenia FA",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/20024.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-02T17:50:01Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 0
  },
  "score_probability": 0.1161,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.5445,
   "draw": 0.2524,
   "away": 0.2031
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 1.69,
   "away": 0.94
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 1,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.1202
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.4891,
   "btts": 0.5027,
   "home_scores": 0.8155,
   "away_scores": 0.6094,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.3955
  },
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0778,
    0.062,
    0.0318,
    0.01,
    0.0023,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.1161,
    0.1202,
    0.0538,
    0.0169,
    0.004,
    0.0007
   ],
   [
    0.1029,
    0.0968,
    0.0455,
    0.0142,
    0.0033,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.058,
    0.0545,
    0.0256,
    0.008,
    0.0019,
    0.0004
   ],
   [
    0.0245,
    0.023,
    0.0108,
    0.0034,
    0.0008,
    0.0001
   ],
   [
    0.0083,
    0.0078,
    0.0037,
    0.0011,
    0.0003,
    0.0001
   ]
  ]
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.5445,
  "level": "medium",
  "level_tr": "orta",
  "banko": false,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.484,
  "band": [
   0.45,
   0.55
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Torreense ev avantajı ve motivasyonla hafif üstün; Ararat-Armenia kötü form, uzun seyahat ve düşük moralle zor durumda.",
  "as_of": "2026-11-02T17:48:40Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Son 3 Avrupa maçında 1 galibiyet 2 mağlubiyet, Ferencvaros'ta 4-1 yenilgi",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-22 20:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Grup maçlarında 3 mağlubiyet, 2'si 4+ gol farkı, moral bozuk",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-22 20:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Ermenistan'dan Portekiz'e uzun seyahat, son deplasman Polonya idi",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-11-05 20:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "motivation",
    "category_tr": "Motivasyon",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "3 mağlubiyetle elenme tehlikesi, motivasyon düşük olabilir",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-11-05 20:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}