{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-05-sk-puntigamer-sturm-graz-nk-celje",
 "competition": "UEFA Avrupa Ligi",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3746.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "NK Celje",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3362.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-02T17:50:20Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_probability": 0.0992,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.6318,
   "draw": 0.2091,
   "away": 0.1591
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 2.122,
   "away": 0.976
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 0,
   "probability": 0.1016
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.5984,
   "btts": 0.5532,
   "home_scores": 0.8802,
   "away_scores": 0.6232,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.466
  },
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0498,
    0.0394,
    0.0215,
    0.007,
    0.0017,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0911,
    0.0982,
    0.0456,
    0.0148,
    0.0036,
    0.0007
   ],
   [
    0.1016,
    0.0992,
    0.0484,
    0.0157,
    0.0038,
    0.0008
   ],
   [
    0.0719,
    0.0702,
    0.0342,
    0.0111,
    0.0027,
    0.0005
   ],
   [
    0.0381,
    0.0372,
    0.0182,
    0.0059,
    0.0014,
    0.0003
   ],
   [
    0.0162,
    0.0158,
    0.0077,
    0.0025,
    0.0006,
    0.0001
   ]
  ]
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.6318,
  "level": "high",
  "level_tr": "yüksek",
  "banko": true,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.661,
  "band": [
   0.6,
   0.7
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Sturm Graz ev avantajı ve Marseille galibiyetiyle favori; yoğun program riski. Celje 14 gün dinlendi ama Avrupa Lig formu çok kötü, Olympiacos öncesi odak kayması olabilir.",
  "as_of": "2026-11-02T17:49:10Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Son maç 1 Kasım deplasmanda, 4 gün ara ile yoğun program",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-11-01 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Evde Marseille'e 1-0 galibiyet, son iki lig maçı berabere",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-22 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Avrupa Liginde 3 maçta 1 puan, evde Omonia'ya 0-3 yenilgi",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-15 00:00"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Son maç 22 Ekim, 14 gün dinlenme avantajı",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-22 00:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}