{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-07-dortmund-sv-07-elversberg",
 "competition": "Bundesliga",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Dortmund",
  "logo": null
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "SV 07 Elversberg",
  "logo": null
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-05T05:18:07Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 3,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_probability": 0.0822,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.7496,
   "draw": 0.1452,
   "away": 0.1052
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 2.942,
   "away": 1.076
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.0838
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.7645,
   "btts": 0.6271,
   "home_scores": 0.9472,
   "away_scores": 0.659,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.5721
  },
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.0208,
    0.0165,
    0.0104,
    0.0037,
    0.001,
    0.0002
   ],
   [
    0.0501,
    0.0598,
    0.0306,
    0.011,
    0.003,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.0779,
    0.0838,
    0.0451,
    0.0162,
    0.0043,
    0.0009
   ],
   [
    0.0764,
    0.0822,
    0.0442,
    0.0159,
    0.0043,
    0.0009
   ],
   [
    0.0562,
    0.0604,
    0.0325,
    0.0117,
    0.0031,
    0.0007
   ],
   [
    0.033,
    0.0356,
    0.0191,
    0.0069,
    0.0018,
    0.0004
   ]
  ]
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.7496,
  "level": "very_high",
  "level_tr": "çok yüksek",
  "banko": true,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.78,
  "band": [
   0.7,
   0.8
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Dortmund ara hafta CL maçı ve birden fazla sakatlık/kadro kaybı ile sahaya çıkacak; Elversberg için belirgin etki yok.",
  "as_of": "2026-11-05T05:16:38Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Ara hafta Şampiyonlar Ligi maçı yorulma ve rotasyon riski yaratıyor",
    "source": "The False 9",
    "published_at": "2026-11-04 23:34"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Guirassy sakatlık şüphesi, Kovac dikkatli olumlu sinyal verdi",
    "source": "Goal.com",
    "published_at": "2026-11-04 23:01"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "squad",
    "category_tr": "Kadro",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Sabitzer Betis maçı kadrosunda yer almıyor, nedeni belirsiz",
    "source": "Heute",
    "published_at": "2026-11-04 14:59"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Betis maçında üst düzey oyuncu erken çıkarıldı, sakatlık şoku",
    "source": "Goal.com",
    "published_at": "2026-11-04 21:13"
   },
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "morale",
    "category_tr": "Moral",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Şampiyonlar Ligi zaferi moral ve motivasyon artırdı",
    "source": "RevierSport online",
    "published_at": "2026-11-04 22:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}