{
 "version": "1",
 "id": "2026-11-07-leipzig-augsburg",
 "competition": "Bundesliga",
 "round": null,
 "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00Z",
 "venue": null,
 "home": {
  "name": "Leipzig",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/11420.png"
 },
 "away": {
  "name": "Augsburg",
  "logo": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/soccer/500/3841.png"
 },
 "status": "scheduled",
 "result": null,
 "stage": "publication",
 "updated_at": "2026-11-05T05:17:45Z",
 "prediction": {
  "score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1
  },
  "score_probability": 0.0862,
  "probabilities": {
   "home": 0.6623,
   "draw": 0.1738,
   "away": 0.1639
  },
  "expected_goals": {
   "home": 2.702,
   "away": 1.326
  },
  "most_likely_score": {
   "home": 2,
   "away": 1,
   "probability": 0.0862
  },
  "markets": {
   "over_2_5": 0.7659,
   "btts": 0.6884,
   "home_scores": 0.9329,
   "away_scores": 0.7345,
   "home_leads_at_half_time": 0.5071
  },
  "score_matrix_0_5": [
   [
    0.021,
    0.0204,
    0.0157,
    0.0069,
    0.0023,
    0.0006
   ],
   [
    0.0449,
    0.067,
    0.0423,
    0.0187,
    0.0062,
    0.0016
   ],
   [
    0.065,
    0.0862,
    0.0572,
    0.0253,
    0.0084,
    0.0022
   ],
   [
    0.0586,
    0.0777,
    0.0515,
    0.0228,
    0.0075,
    0.002
   ],
   [
    0.0396,
    0.0525,
    0.0348,
    0.0154,
    0.0051,
    0.0014
   ],
   [
    0.0214,
    0.0283,
    0.0188,
    0.0083,
    0.0028,
    0.0007
   ]
  ]
 },
 "confidence": {
  "pick": "home",
  "probability": 0.6623,
  "level": "high",
  "level_tr": "yüksek",
  "banko": true,
  "historical_hit_rate": 0.661,
  "band": [
   0.6,
   0.7
  ],
  "basis_tr": "Modelin favoriye bu olasılık bandında verdiği tahminlerin geçmişte gerçekleşme oranı (12 lig, 2024-2027, 9.013 maç)."
 },
 "factors": {
  "summary_tr": "Leipzig UCL yorgunluğu ve rotasyon riskiyle; Augsburg Brackelmann sakatlığı, kötü form ve ilçe mali kriziyle maça giriyor. Her iki takımdaki olumsuz faktörler gol beklentilerini hafifçe düşürüyor.",
  "as_of": "2026-11-05T05:16:38Z",
  "lineups_confirmed": false,
  "items": [
   {
    "team": "home",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "UCL maçından 3 gün sonra yorgunluk riski",
    "source": "Sky Sports",
    "published_at": "2026-11-04 18:26"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "injury",
    "category_tr": "Sakatlık",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Calvin Brackelmann sakatlıkla dışarıda",
    "source": "Augsburger Allgemeine",
    "published_at": "2026-11-03 17:31"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "form",
    "category_tr": "Form",
    "direction": -1,
    "summary_tr": "Son 3 lig maçında 2 mağlubiyet 1 beraberlik",
    "source": "WELT",
    "published_at": "2026-11-04 15:45"
   },
   {
    "team": "away",
    "category": "fixture_congestion",
    "category_tr": "Fikstür",
    "direction": 1,
    "summary_tr": "Son maçtan bu yana 7 gün dinlenme avantajı",
    "source": "ESPN",
    "published_at": "2026-10-31 00:00"
   }
  ]
 },
 "video": null,
 "notes_tr": {
  "summary": null,
  "items": []
 }
}