Atletico Madrid vs FC Bayern München prediction
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Skorbot's model gives Atletico Madrid a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FC Bayern München 40%. Predicted score: 1–2. The single most likely exact score is 1–1 (11%).
Updated:
Result probabilities
Goals
| Expected goals – Atletico Madrid | 1.55 |
| Expected goals – FC Bayern München | 1.66 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Both teams score | 64% |
| Atletico Madrid scores | 79% |
| FC Bayern München scores | 81% |
| Atletico Madrid leads at half-time | 29% |
Last 5 matches
Atletico Madrid
1W 1D 1L · 4 pts · goals 4–3
- 20 Oct 2026VfB Stuttgart (away)1–1
- 13 Oct 2026Manchester United (home)2–0
- 9 Sep 2026Liverpool (away)1–2
FC Bayern München
1W 2D 0L · 5 pts · goals 10–5
- 21 Oct 2026Arsenal (home)2–2
- 13 Oct 2026Viking FK (away)3–3
- 10 Sep 2026Bodo/Glimt (home)5–0
FC Bayern München has drawn 2 in a row. In 8,047 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 37%, drew 27%, lost 36%.
Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.
Most likely exact scores
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid 1–1 FC Bayern München | 11% |
| Atletico Madrid 1–2 FC Bayern München | 9% |
| Atletico Madrid 2–1 FC Bayern München | 8% |
| Atletico Madrid 2–2 FC Bayern München | 7% |
| Atletico Madrid 0–1 FC Bayern München | 6% |
| Atletico Madrid 1–0 FC Bayern München | 6% |
How reliable is this pick?
Low confidence
The model's favourite (FC Bayern München win) gets 40%. When the favourite's probability was between 0% and 45%, it won 41% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).
Questions
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs FC Bayern München?
The model's pick is FC Bayern München win with 40%. Probabilities: Atletico Madrid 35%, draw 24%, FC Bayern München 40%.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs FC Bayern München?
1–2. The single most likely exact score is 1–1 at 11%.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals in Atletico Madrid vs FC Bayern München?
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 64%. Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.55, FC Bayern München 1.66.
What is the recent form of Atletico Madrid and FC Bayern München?
Atletico Madrid: D W L (4 pts from the last 5). FC Bayern München: D D W (5 pts).
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