Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe prediction
Finished Venue: RAMS Park
Skorbot's model gives Galatasaray a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fenerbahçe 29%. Predicted score: 2–1. The single most likely exact score is 1–1 (11%). Final score: Galatasaray 2–1 Fenerbahçe. The model's pick (Galatasaray win) was correct. The predicted score 2–1 was exact.
Updated:
Result probabilities
Goals
| Expected goals – Galatasaray | 1.81 |
| Expected goals – Fenerbahçe | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Both teams score | 63% |
| Galatasaray scores | 84% |
| Fenerbahçe scores | 74% |
| Galatasaray leads at half-time | 37% |
Last 5 matches
Galatasaray
4W 0D 1L · 12 pts · goals 8–7
- 17 Oct 2026Gençlerbirliği (away)1–0
- 9 Oct 2026Kasımpaşa (home)3–1
- 19 Sep 2026Trabzonspor (away)0–4
- 13 Sep 2026Kocaelispor (home)1–0
- 4 Sep 2026Başakşehir (away)3–2
Fenerbahçe
3W 1D 1L · 10 pts · goals 15–2
- 17 Oct 2026Alanyaspor (home)3–0
- 10 Oct 2026Çaykur Rizespor (away)3–0
- 20 Sep 2026Eyüpspor (home)8–0
- 14 Sep 2026Gaziantep FK (away)0–0
- 5 Sep 2026Beşiktaş (home)1–2
Galatasaray has won 2 in a row. In 13,250 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 42%, drew 26%, lost 33%.
Fenerbahçe has won 3 in a row. In 5,501 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 44%, drew 26%, lost 30%.
Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.
Most likely exact scores
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Galatasaray 1–1 Fenerbahçe | 11% |
| Galatasaray 2–1 Fenerbahçe | 9% |
| Galatasaray 1–0 Fenerbahçe | 7% |
| Galatasaray 1–2 Fenerbahçe | 7% |
| Galatasaray 2–0 Fenerbahçe | 7% |
| Galatasaray 2–2 Fenerbahçe | 6% |
How reliable is this pick?
Medium confidence
The model's favourite (Galatasaray win) gets 48%. When the favourite's probability was between 45% and 55%, it won 48% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).
Questions
Who will win Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
The model's pick is Galatasaray win with 48%. Probabilities: Galatasaray 48%, draw 24%, Fenerbahçe 29%.
What is the recent form of Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe?
Galatasaray: W W L W W (12 pts from the last 5). Fenerbahçe: W W W D L (10 pts).
More Süper Lig predictions
- 30 Oct 2026 · 17:00Konyaspor – GalatasarayResult 0–4 · Predicted 1–2 ✓
- 31 Oct 2026 · 10:30Erzurumspor – Çorum FKResult 1–3 · Predicted 1–1 ✓
- 31 Oct 2026 · 13:00Kocaelispor – Çaykur RizesporResult 0–0 · Predicted 0–1 ✗
- 31 Oct 2026 · 16:00Fenerbahçe – GöztepeResult 1–2 · Predicted 3–1 ✗
- 1 Nov 2026 · 10:30Amed Sportif – EyüpsporAmed Sportif win 77% · 3–1 Strong pick (≥ 60%)
- 1 Nov 2026 · 13:00Başakşehir – SamsunsporBaşakşehir win 53% · 2–1