Metz vs Pau prediction
Finished
Skorbot's model gives Metz a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Pau 25%. Predicted score: 1–0. The single most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%). Final score: Metz 1–3 Pau. The model's pick (Metz win) was wrong.
Updated:
Result probabilities
Goals
| Expected goals – Metz | 1.63 |
| Expected goals – Pau | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Both teams score | 54% |
| Metz scores | 80% |
| Pau scores | 66% |
| Metz leads at half-time | 37% |
Last 5 matches
Metz
1W 2D 2L · 5 pts · goals 8–10
- 23 Oct 2026Dunkerque (away)1–1
- 17 Oct 2026Sochaux (home)3–2
- 12 Oct 2026Dijon (away)2–4
- 19 Sep 2026Saint-Étienne (home)2–2
- 14 Sep 2026Red Star FC 93 (away)0–1
Pau
4W 0D 1L · 12 pts · goals 9–5
- 23 Oct 2026Grenoble (home)2–1
- 16 Oct 2026Guingamp (away)2–1
- 9 Oct 2026Stade Laval (home)3–2
- 18 Sep 2026Dunkerque (home)2–0
- 11 Sep 2026Montpellier (away)0–1
Pau has won 4 in a row. In 2,394 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 47%, drew 24%, lost 28%.
Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.
Most likely exact scores
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Metz 1–1 Pau | 12% |
| Metz 1–0 Pau | 10% |
| Metz 2–1 Pau | 10% |
| Metz 2–0 Pau | 9% |
| Metz 0–0 Pau | 7% |
| Metz 0–1 Pau | 7% |
How reliable is this pick?
Medium confidence
The model's favourite (Metz win) gets 50%. When the favourite's probability was between 45% and 55%, it won 48% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).
Team news read by AI
- InjuryMetz · ▼ negative (Source: Le Republicain Lorrain / Morning Foot)
- FormMetz · ▼ negative (Source: ESPN)
- MotivationMetz · ▲ positive (Source: ici.fr)
- SquadMetz · ▲ positive (Source: Le Republicain Lorrain)
- OtherMetz · ▲ positive (Source: Sport.fr)
- InjuryPau · ▼ negative (Source: La République des Pyrénées)
- SquadPau · ▼ negative (Source: La République des Pyrénées)
- FormPau · ▲ positive (Source: Recent fixtures / Sport.fr)
- MotivationPau · ▲ positive (Source: La République des Pyrénées / Sud Ouest)
Pre-match news items classified by AI, with their direction for each team. Details are summarised in Turkish on the Turkish page.
Questions
Who will win Metz vs Pau?
The model's pick is Metz win with 50%. Probabilities: Metz 50%, draw 26%, Pau 25%.
What is the recent form of Metz and Pau?
Metz: D W L D L (5 pts from the last 5). Pau: W W W W L (12 pts).
More Ligue 2 (France) predictions
- 30 Oct 2026 · 19:00Grenoble – DijonResult 1–3 · Predicted 0–1 ✓
- 31 Oct 2026 · 19:00Guingamp – Saint-ÉtienneResult 3–0 · Predicted 0–1 ✗
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- 30 Oct 2026 · 23:00Corinthians – MirassolBrasileirão Série AResult 2–0 · Predicted 1–0 ✓