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Brasileirão Série A ·

Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense prediction

Finished

Skorbot's model gives Grêmio a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Athletico Paranaense 30%. Predicted score: 1–0. The single most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%). Final score: Grêmio 2–0 Athletico Paranaense. The model's pick (Grêmio win) was correct.

Updated:

Result probabilities

41%Grêmio28%Draw30%Athletico Paranaense

Goals

Expected goals – Grêmio1.34
Expected goals – Athletico Paranaense1.11
Over 2.5 goals44%
Both teams score50%
Grêmio scores74%
Athletico Paranaense scores67%
Grêmio leads at half-time31%

Last 5 matches

Grêmio

WLDDD

1W 3D 1L · 6 pts · goals 5–6

  • 26 Oct 2026Coritiba (away)1–0
  • 18 Oct 2026Cruzeiro (home)2–4
  • 11 Oct 2026Internacional (home)1–1
  • 7 Oct 2026Remo (away)1–1
  • 20 Sep 2026Palmeiras (home)0–0

Athletico Paranaense

DLWDW

2W 2D 1L · 8 pts · goals 9–7

  • 24 Oct 2026Vitória (away)1–1
  • 17 Oct 2026Palmeiras (home)0–2
  • 12 Oct 2026Chapecoense (away)4–1
  • 8 Oct 2026Atlético Mineiro (home)2–2
  • 20 Sep 2026Bahia (home)2–1

Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.

Most likely exact scores

ScoreProbability
Grêmio 1–1 Athletico Paranaense13%
Grêmio 1–0 Athletico Paranaense11%
Grêmio 0–0 Athletico Paranaense9%
Grêmio 0–1 Athletico Paranaense9%
Grêmio 2–1 Athletico Paranaense9%
Grêmio 2–0 Athletico Paranaense8%

How reliable is this pick?

Low confidence

The model's favourite (Grêmio win) gets 41%. When the favourite's probability was between 0% and 45%, it won 41% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).

Team news read by AI

  • InjuryGrêmio · ▼ negative (Source: ge)
  • InjuryGrêmio · ▼ negative (Source: GZH)
  • InjuryGrêmio · ▼ negative (Source: GZH)
  • SquadGrêmio · ▲ positive (Source: ge)
  • MotivationGrêmio · ▲ positive (Source: OneFootball)
  • SquadAthletico Paranaense · ▲ positive (Source: ge)
  • RotationAthletico Paranaense · ▼ negative (Source: Rádio Itatiaia)

Pre-match news items classified by AI, with their direction for each team. Details are summarised in Turkish on the Turkish page.

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Questions

Who will win Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model's pick is Grêmio win with 41%. Probabilities: Grêmio 41%, draw 28%, Athletico Paranaense 30%.

What is the recent form of Grêmio and Athletico Paranaense?

Grêmio: W L D D D (6 pts from the last 5). Athletico Paranaense: D L W D W (8 pts).

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