Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Finished
Skorbot's model gives Bayern Munich a 73% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Borussia Dortmund 12%. Predicted score: 3–1. The single most likely exact score is 2–1 (9%). Final score: Bayern Munich 2–2 Borussia Dortmund. The model's pick (Bayern Munich win) was wrong.
Updated:
Result probabilities
Strong pick (≥ 60%)
Goals
| Expected goals – Bayern Munich | 2.87 |
| Expected goals – Borussia Dortmund | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% |
| Both teams score | 64% |
| Bayern Munich scores | 94% |
| Borussia Dortmund scores | 68% |
| Bayern Munich leads at half-time | 56% |
Last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
4W 1D 0L · 13 pts · goals 20–5
- 25 Oct 2026SC Freiburg (away)3–1
- 17 Oct 2026RB Leipzig (home)6–1
- 10 Oct 2026FC Augsburg (away)2–2
- 18 Sep 20261. FC Union Berlin (home)7–0
- 13 Sep 2026SV Elversberg (away)2–1
Borussia Dortmund
3W 2D 0L · 11 pts · goals 7–2
- 24 Oct 2026Eintracht Frankfurt (home)1–0
- 17 Oct 20261. FC Union Berlin (away)0–0
- 9 Oct 2026Werder Bremen (home)2–2
- 19 Sep 2026VfB Stuttgart (away)1–0
- 12 Sep 2026SC Paderborn 07 (home)3–0
Bayern Munich has won 2 in a row. In 13,250 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 42%, drew 26%, lost 33%.
Bayern Munich is unbeaten in 7. In 2,769 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 44%, drew 27%, lost 29%.
Borussia Dortmund is unbeaten in 7. In 2,769 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 44%, drew 27%, lost 29%.
Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.
Most likely exact scores
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bayern Munich 2–1 Borussia Dortmund | 9% |
| Bayern Munich 3–1 Borussia Dortmund | 8% |
| Bayern Munich 2–0 Borussia Dortmund | 8% |
| Bayern Munich 3–0 Borussia Dortmund | 7% |
| Bayern Munich 1–1 Borussia Dortmund | 6% |
| Bayern Munich 4–1 Borussia Dortmund | 6% |
How reliable is this pick?
The model's favourite (Bayern Munich win) gets 73%. When the favourite's probability was between 70% and 80%, it won 78% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).
Team news read by AI
- InjuryBayern Munich · ▼ negative (Source: Goal.com)
- InjuryBayern Munich · ▲ positive (Source: Sky.de)
- CoachBayern Munich · ▼ negative (Source: Nacionale)
- InjuryBorussia Dortmund · ▲ positive (Source: Kicker)
- InjuryBorussia Dortmund · ▲ positive (Source: Yahoo Sports)
- InjuryBorussia Dortmund · ▼ negative (Source: LigaInsider)
- InjuryBorussia Dortmund · ▼ negative (Source: Bulinews)
- RotationBorussia Dortmund · ▲ positive (Source: Ruhr Nachrichten)
Pre-match news items classified by AI, with their direction for each team. Details are summarised in Turkish on the Turkish page.
Questions
Who will win Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model's pick is Bayern Munich win with 73%. Probabilities: Bayern Munich 73%, draw 15%, Borussia Dortmund 12%.
What is the recent form of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern Munich: W W D W W (13 pts from the last 5). Borussia Dortmund: W D D W W (11 pts).
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