Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction
Finished
Skorbot's model gives Chelsea a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Manchester United 29%. Predicted score: 2–1. The single most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%). Final score: Chelsea 2–0 Manchester United. The model's pick (Chelsea win) was correct.
Updated:
Result probabilities
Goals
| Expected goals – Chelsea | 1.64 |
| Expected goals – Manchester United | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Both teams score | 59% |
| Chelsea scores | 81% |
| Manchester United scores | 72% |
| Chelsea leads at half-time | 35% |
Last 5 matches
Chelsea
2W 1D 2L · 7 pts · goals 9–8
- 24 Oct 2026Tottenham Hotspur (home)0–2
- 17 Oct 2026Everton (away)2–0
- 10 Oct 2026AFC Bournemouth (home)5–1
- 18 Sep 2026Brentford (away)0–3
- 12 Sep 2026Hull City (home)2–2
Manchester United
0W 3D 2L · 3 pts · goals 3–7
- 25 Oct 2026AFC Bournemouth (home)0–3
- 18 Oct 2026Leeds United (away)1–1
- 10 Oct 2026Tottenham Hotspur (home)1–1
- 20 Sep 2026Fulham (away)1–1
- 13 Sep 2026Manchester City (home)0–1
Manchester United is winless in 6. In 4,215 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 31%, drew 27%, lost 42%.
Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.
Most likely exact scores
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Chelsea 1–1 Manchester United | 12% |
| Chelsea 2–1 Manchester United | 9% |
| Chelsea 1–0 Manchester United | 8% |
| Chelsea 2–0 Manchester United | 7% |
| Chelsea 1–2 Manchester United | 7% |
| Chelsea 0–1 Manchester United | 6% |
How reliable is this pick?
Medium confidence
The model's favourite (Chelsea win) gets 45%. When the favourite's probability was between 45% and 55%, it won 48% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).
Team news read by AI
- InjuryChelsea · ▼ negative (Source: Chelsea Football Club, Talk Chelsea)
- InjuryChelsea · ▼ negative (Source: London Evening Standard)
- Fixture congestionChelsea · ▼ negative (Source: Fixture list)
- MoraleChelsea · ▼ negative (Source: Vietnam.vn)
- InjuryChelsea · ▼ negative (Source: Chelsea Football Club)
- InjuryManchester United · ▼ negative (Source: BBC, Manchester United)
- SquadManchester United · ▲ positive (Source: Ajansspor, Manchester Evening News)
- InjuryManchester United · ▲ positive (Source: Manchester United)
- MoraleManchester United · ▼ negative (Source: Goal.com, Manchester Evening News)
- InjuryManchester United · ▼ negative (Source: London Evening Standard)
Pre-match news items classified by AI, with their direction for each team. Details are summarised in Turkish on the Turkish page.
Questions
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
The model's pick is Chelsea win with 45%. Probabilities: Chelsea 45%, draw 25%, Manchester United 29%.
What is the recent form of Chelsea and Manchester United?
Chelsea: L W W L D (7 pts from the last 5). Manchester United: L D D D L (3 pts).
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