AEK vs Real Madrid prediction
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Skorbot's model gives AEK a 8% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Real Madrid 79%. Predicted score: 1–3. The single most likely exact score is 1–3 (8%).
Updated:
Result probabilities
Strong pick (≥ 60%)
Goals
| Expected goals – AEK | 1.05 |
| Expected goals – Real Madrid | 3.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| Both teams score | 63% |
| AEK scores | 65% |
| Real Madrid scores | 96% |
| AEK leads at half-time | 12% |
Last 5 matches
AEK
1W 0D 2L · 3 pts · goals 3–8
- 20 Oct 2026Manchester City (away)1–5
- 14 Oct 2026FK Shakhtar Donetsk (away)1–3
- 8 Sep 2026LASK Linz (home)1–0
Real Madrid
3W 0D 0L · 9 pts · goals 10–5
- 21 Oct 2026RB Leipzig (home)4–1
- 14 Oct 2026AS Roma (away)4–3
- 8 Sep 2026Inter (home)2–1
AEK has lost 2 in a row. In 13,414 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 33%, drew 26%, lost 41%.
Real Madrid has won 3 in a row. In 5,501 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 44%, drew 26%, lost 30%.
Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.
Most likely exact scores
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AEK 1–3 Real Madrid | 8% |
| AEK 0–3 Real Madrid | 8% |
| AEK 1–2 Real Madrid | 8% |
| AEK 0–2 Real Madrid | 7% |
| AEK 1–4 Real Madrid | 7% |
| AEK 0–4 Real Madrid | 6% |
How reliable is this pick?
The model's favourite (Real Madrid win) gets 79%. When the favourite's probability was between 70% and 80%, it won 78% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).
Team news read by AI
- InjuryAEK · ▼ negative (Source: Goal.com)
- MoraleAEK · ▼ negative (Source: Real Madrid CF Web Oficial)
- InjuryReal Madrid · ▼ negative (Source: Sports Mole)
- RotationReal Madrid · ▼ negative (Source: Yahoo Sports)
- SquadReal Madrid · ▲ positive (Source: Goal.com)
- MoraleReal Madrid · ▼ negative (Source: Goal.com)
Pre-match news items classified by AI, with their direction for each team. Details are summarised in Turkish on the Turkish page.
Questions
Who will win AEK vs Real Madrid?
The model's pick is Real Madrid win with 79%. Probabilities: AEK 8%, draw 12%, Real Madrid 79%.
What is the predicted score for AEK vs Real Madrid?
1–3. The single most likely exact score is 1–3 at 8%.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals in AEK vs Real Madrid?
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams scoring at 63%. Expected goals: AEK 1.05, Real Madrid 3.22.
What is the recent form of AEK and Real Madrid?
AEK: L L W (3 pts from the last 5). Real Madrid: W W W (9 pts).
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