Flamengo vs Grêmio prediction
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Skorbot's model gives Flamengo a 83% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Grêmio 6%. Predicted score: 3–1. The single most likely exact score is 3–0 (10%).
Updated:
Result probabilities
Strong pick (≥ 60%)
Goals
| Expected goals – Flamengo | 3.11 |
| Expected goals – Grêmio | 0.78 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% |
| Both teams score | 52% |
| Flamengo scores | 96% |
| Grêmio scores | 54% |
| Flamengo leads at half-time | 63% |
Last 5 matches
Flamengo
4W 1D 0L · 13 pts · goals 13–5
- 29 Oct 2026Vasco da Gama (away)4–1
- 26 Oct 2026Atlético Mineiro (home)3–2
- 18 Oct 2026Bahia (away)3–0
- 11 Oct 2026Fluminense (home)1–0
- 8 Oct 2026Santos (away)2–2
Grêmio
2W 2D 1L · 8 pts · goals 7–6
- 30 Oct 2026Athletico Paranaense (home)2–0
- 26 Oct 2026Coritiba (away)1–0
- 18 Oct 2026Cruzeiro (home)2–4
- 11 Oct 2026Internacional (home)1–1
- 7 Oct 2026Remo (away)1–1
Flamengo has won 4 in a row. In 2,394 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 47%, drew 24%, lost 28%.
Flamengo is unbeaten in 10. In 4,728 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 55%, drew 24%, lost 21%.
Grêmio has won 2 in a row. In 13,250 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 42%, drew 26%, lost 33%.
Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.
Most likely exact scores
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Flamengo 3–0 Grêmio | 10% |
| Flamengo 2–0 Grêmio | 10% |
| Flamengo 4–0 Grêmio | 8% |
| Flamengo 3–1 Grêmio | 8% |
| Flamengo 2–1 Grêmio | 8% |
| Flamengo 4–1 Grêmio | 6% |
How reliable is this pick?
The model's favourite (Flamengo win) gets 83%. When the favourite's probability was between 80% and 100%, it won 88% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).
Team news read by AI
- SuspensionFlamengo · ▼ negative (Source: OneFootball)
- InjuryFlamengo · ▼ negative (Source: Terra)
- Fixture congestionFlamengo · ▲ positive (Source: OneFootball)
- MotivationFlamengo · ▲ positive (Source: OneFootball)
- FormFlamengo · ▲ positive (Source: OneFootball)
- SuspensionGrêmio · ▼ negative (Source: Correio do Povo)
- Fixture congestionGrêmio · ▼ negative (Source: ESPN Brasil)
- RotationGrêmio · ▼ negative (Source: OneFootball)
- MotivationGrêmio · ▼ negative (Source: ESPN Brasil)
- MoraleGrêmio · ▲ positive (Source: OneFootball)
Pre-match news items classified by AI, with their direction for each team. Details are summarised in Turkish on the Turkish page.
Questions
Who will win Flamengo vs Grêmio?
The model's pick is Flamengo win with 83%. Probabilities: Flamengo 83%, draw 11%, Grêmio 6%.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Grêmio?
3–1. The single most likely exact score is 3–0 at 10%.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals in Flamengo vs Grêmio?
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 52%. Expected goals: Flamengo 3.11, Grêmio 0.78.
What is the recent form of Flamengo and Grêmio?
Flamengo: W W W W D (13 pts from the last 5). Grêmio: W W L D D (8 pts).
More Brasileirão Série A predictions
- 30 Oct 2026 · 00:30Grêmio – Athletico ParanaenseResult 2–0 · Predicted 1–0 ✓
- 30 Oct 2026 · 23:00Corinthians – MirassolResult 2–0 · Predicted 1–0 ✓
- 2 Nov 2026 · 23:00Bragantino – SantosBragantino win 49% · 2–1
- 3 Nov 2026 · 22:30Chapecoense – MirassolMirassol win 49% · 1–2
- 4 Nov 2026 · 00:30Internacional – CoritibaInternacional win 60% · 1–0 Strong pick (≥ 60%)
- 4 Nov 2026 · 22:30Athletico Paranaense – Vasco da GamaAthletico Paranaense win 44% · 1–0