Mainz vs Bayern prediction
Bundesliga Upcoming
Skorbot's predicted scoreStrong pick (≥ 60%)
Skorbot's model gives Mainz a 12% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Bayern 73%. Predicted score: 1–3. The single most likely exact score is 1–3 (8%).
Updated:
This prediction gets its final update about 1 hour before kick-off, when the starting line-ups are announced. That last update is the most accurate one.
Goals
| Expected goals – Mainz | 1.31 |
| Expected goals – Bayern | 3.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% |
| Both teams score | 70% |
| Mainz scores | 73% |
| Bayern scores | 96% |
| Mainz leads at half-time | 15% |
Most likely exact scores
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mainz 1–3 Bayern | 8% |
| Mainz 1–2 Bayern | 8% |
| Mainz 1–4 Bayern | 6% |
| Mainz 0–3 Bayern | 6% |
| Mainz 0–2 Bayern | 6% |
| Mainz 2–3 Bayern | 5% |
How reliable is this pick?
The model's favourite (Bayern win) gets 73%. When the favourite's probability was between 70% and 80%, it won 78% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).
Last 5 matches
Mainz
2W 0D 3L · 6 pts · goals 11–14
- 30 Oct 2026SV 07 Elversberg (away)1–4
- 24 Oct 2026Werder (home)2–3
- 17 Oct 2026Schalke 04 (away)1–0
- 10 Oct 2026Bayer 04 Leverkusen (home)3–4
- 19 Sep 2026Gladbach (away)4–3
Bayern
3W 2D 0L · 11 pts · goals 20–6
- 31 Oct 2026Borussia Dortmund (home)2–2
- 25 Oct 2026SC Freiburg (away)3–1
- 17 Oct 2026Leipzig (home)6–1
- 10 Oct 2026Augsburg (away)2–2
- 18 Sep 20261. FC Union Berlin (home)7–0
Mainz has lost 2 in a row. In 13,414 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 33%, drew 26%, lost 41%.
Bayern is unbeaten in 8. In 1,954 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 46%, drew 27%, lost 27%.
Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.
Questions
Who will win Mainz vs Bayern?
The model's pick is Bayern win with 73%. Probabilities: Mainz 12%, draw 14%, Bayern 73%.
What is the predicted score for Mainz vs Bayern?
1–3. The single most likely exact score is 1–3 at 8%.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals in Mainz vs Bayern?
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams scoring at 70%. Expected goals: Mainz 1.31, Bayern 3.14.
What is the recent form of Mainz and Bayern?
Mainz: L L W L W (6 pts from the last 5). Bayern: D W W D W (11 pts).
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