Milan vs Bologna prediction
Finished Venue: San Siro
Skorbot's model gives Milan a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bologna 18%. Predicted score: 1–0. The single most likely exact score is 1–1 (11%). Final score: Milan 2–4 Bologna. The model's pick (Milan win) was wrong.
Updated:
Result probabilities
Goals
| Expected goals – Milan | 1.82 |
| Expected goals – Bologna | 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Both teams score | 51% |
| Milan scores | 84% |
| Bologna scores | 60% |
| Milan leads at half-time | 42% |
Last 5 matches
Milan
3W 2D 0L · 11 pts · goals 11–5
- 25 Oct 2026Udinese (away)2–0
- 18 Oct 2026Atalanta (home)3–2
- 11 Oct 2026Sassuolo (away)1–1
- 20 Sep 2026Lecce (home)3–0
- 12 Sep 2026Lazio (away)2–2
Bologna
2W 1D 2L · 7 pts · goals 6–6
- 24 Oct 2026Cagliari (away)2–0
- 17 Oct 2026Inter (home)1–3
- 11 Oct 2026Lecce (away)2–1
- 19 Sep 2026Torino (home)1–1
- 13 Sep 2026Napoli (away)0–1
Milan has won 2 in a row. In 13,250 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 42%, drew 26%, lost 33%.
Milan is unbeaten in 8. In 1,954 similar cases (40 leagues, six seasons) the next match ended: won 46%, drew 27%, lost 27%.
Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.
Most likely exact scores
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Milan 1–1 Bologna | 11% |
| Milan 1–0 Bologna | 11% |
| Milan 2–0 Bologna | 11% |
| Milan 2–1 Bologna | 10% |
| Milan 0–0 Bologna | 7% |
| Milan 3–0 Bologna | 7% |
How reliable is this pick?
The model's favourite (Milan win) gets 58%. When the favourite's probability was between 55% and 60%, it won 61% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).
Questions
Who will win Milan vs Bologna?
The model's pick is Milan win with 58%. Probabilities: Milan 58%, draw 24%, Bologna 18%.
What is the recent form of Milan and Bologna?
Milan: W W D W D (11 pts from the last 5). Bologna: W L W D L (7 pts).
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