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Serie A ·

Monza vs Napoli prediction

Finished Venue: U-Power Stadium

Skorbot's model gives Monza a 22% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Napoli 54%. Predicted score: 1–2. The single most likely exact score is 1–1 (11%). Final score: Monza 1–4 Napoli. The model's pick (Napoli win) was correct.

Updated:

Result probabilities

22%Monza24%Draw54%Napoli

Goals

Expected goals – Monza1.08
Expected goals – Napoli1.82
Over 2.5 goals55%
Both teams score56%
Monza scores66%
Napoli scores84%
Monza leads at half-time20%

Last 5 matches

Monza

LWLWL

2W 0D 3L · 6 pts · goals 11–10

  • 23 Oct 2026Torino (away)2–3
  • 19 Oct 2026Cagliari (home)4–0
  • 11 Oct 2026Lazio (away)1–3
  • 18 Sep 2026Sassuolo (home)2–1
  • 13 Sep 2026Lecce (away)2–3

Napoli

DLWDW

2W 2D 1L · 8 pts · goals 8–5

  • 24 Oct 2026AS Roma (home)3–3
  • 17 Oct 2026Venezia (away)0–1
  • 10 Oct 2026Frosinone (home)3–0
  • 20 Sep 2026Fiorentina (away)1–1
  • 13 Sep 2026Bologna (home)1–0

Winning runs do not signal a coming defeat: across 83,343 matches, teams that had won five in a row won their next match 50% of the time and lost 24%. League results: ESPN.

Most likely exact scores

ScoreProbability
Monza 1–1 Napoli11%
Monza 1–2 Napoli10%
Monza 0–1 Napoli9%
Monza 0–2 Napoli9%
Monza 0–0 Napoli6%
Monza 1–3 Napoli6%

How reliable is this pick?

Medium confidence

The model's favourite (Napoli win) gets 54%. When the favourite's probability was between 45% and 55%, it won 48% of the time (12 leagues, 2024–2027, 9,013 matches).

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Questions

Who will win Monza vs Napoli?

The model's pick is Napoli win with 54%. Probabilities: Monza 22%, draw 24%, Napoli 54%.

What is the recent form of Monza and Napoli?

Monza: L W L W L (6 pts from the last 5). Napoli: D L W D W (8 pts).

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